Industrial metals: social finance data in January exceeded expectations, and steady growth was gradually realized
Aluminum: domestic and foreign supply is constantly disturbed, and the price of electrolytic aluminum is rising strongly
The overseas energy crisis continued, the price of natural gas rose, and the supply of European electrolytic aluminum enterprises gradually weakened. In China, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production continued after the festival, but the supply was disturbed due to the limited production of the Winter Olympic Games and the epidemic situation in Baise, Guangxi. At present, the profit per ton of electrolytic aluminum has reached about 4000 yuan. Under the background of supply disturbance at home and abroad, the aluminum price is expected to remain high in the future, mainly benefiting from Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) .
Copper: China’s demand recovery is expected to boost, and the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to strengthen to curb growth
China’s social finance data in January exceeded expectations, boosting the market’s expectation of the recovery of China’s demand, adding that Lun copper inventory is still declining, thus supporting the high copper price. However, this week, as the US CPI hit a 40 year high in January, the market strengthened its expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike and restrained the rise of copper price. At present, copper supply tends to be loose, although the demand is seasonally weak, but affected by China’s stable growth policy, the marginal increase in the later stage is relatively certain, and the short-term copper price may maintain a volatile pattern, mainly benefiting from Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , etc.
Energy metals: the high boom of the industry continues and the price rises further
Lithium: supply continues to be limited, and lithium price is expected to continue to strengthen
Since January, Chinese lithium salt manufacturers have successively entered the state of shutdown and maintenance. Although lithium salt enterprises began to resume production after the festival, the supply increment is insufficient, and the supply shortage is difficult to alleviate in a short time. Under the background of hot demand, lithium salt prices are expected to continue to strengthen in the future, mainly benefiting from Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) .
Cobalt: short-term tight supply combined with better downstream demand pushed up the price of cobalt to rise slightly
Although the month on month growth rate of new energy vehicle sales decreased in January, it still increased significantly year-on-year, and the prosperity trend of new energy vehicle market continued. In addition, during the Spring Festival, some cobalt salt plants stopped repair or had holidays, and the supply declined. The superimposed part of the electric cobalt supply turned to cobalt salt and Xiamen Customs classified cobalt ore as dangerous goods, which exacerbated the supply tension, thus pushing up the prices of electric cobalt and cobalt salt, mainly benefiting from Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) and so on.
Rare earth: prices continue to rise, and the long-term tight balance between supply and demand remains unchanged
After the festival, rare earth prices continued to rise. Although the Ministry of industry and information technology released the first batch of rare earth mining indicators in 2022 before the festival, and the overall rare earth quota increased, considering the limited increment of overseas supply and the rapid development of new energy industry, it is expected that the rare earth industry will still be in a tight balance between supply and demand, rare earth prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the main beneficiaries include China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) etc.
Precious metals: with the intensification of the crisis in Ukraine and inflation concerns, precious metal prices are still strongly supported
The US inflation data in January was much higher than expected. Although the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates continued to rise, in view of the current high US inflation and the intensification of the crisis in Ukraine, the price of precious metals will still have strong support in the future, mainly benefiting from Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) .
Risk tips: the macro economy is less than expected, the monetary policy shrinks more than expected, the global epidemic is repeated, etc.
