Sluggish growth of mobile phone shipments: according to IDC statistics, the global mobile phone shipments reached 331.2/3.624 million in Q3 / Q4 in 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 6.33% / - 6.09%. The annual shipments in 2021 increased by 4.84% over 2020, but decreased by 1.18% compared with 2019 before the impact of the epidemic. The overall mobile phone shipments continued the downward trend since 2017.
Automotive electronics is a link between the preceding and the following: when mobile phones encounter growth bottlenecks, new energy vehicles maintain strong growth. According to the passenger Federation, China will achieve 3.288 million new energy passenger vehicles in 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of 179.6%. It is expected that new energy vehicles will exceed 6 million in 2022, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach about 22%. According to evvolumes, in 2021, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles was 6.75 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 108.3%, and the global vehicle electrification rate was about 8.9%. We are optimistic about the investment opportunities in automotive electronics driven by new energy vehicles, which are mainly divided into two areas: intelligent cockpit and power electronics. We regard the smart cockpit as an extension of mobile phones in terms of function. Therefore, the smart cockpit can undertake the expansion of some mobile phone industry chains, focusing on the direction of camera, radar, audio and so on. In terms of power electronics, we are mainly optimistic about the incremental market brought by automobile electrification, including power semiconductors, capacitors, PCBs, etc.
Short term pullback does not change the long-term logic: since 2022, growth stocks have generally fallen rapidly due to the impact of capital contraction, US monetary policy, macroeconomic, style switching and other factors. We judge that high-quality development is still the focus of national development, and the core to achieve high-quality development is to rely on innovation and technological development. China's trend from resource and scale driven to innovation and efficiency driven is unshakable. The "technology + double carbon" industry represented by semiconductors and new energy still has long-term investment value. The short-term correction highlights the importance of fundamentals. Companies with high quality and low price may be able to usher in the layout opportunity first.
It is suggested to pay attention to: the leader of high boom industry, and the targets of performance growth are relatively certain: Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic Co.Ltd(603228) , Wus Printed Circuit (Kunshan) Co.Ltd(002463) .
Risk warning: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the epidemic development is higher than expected, and liquidity risk
