Event: according to the notice on the implementation guide for the transformation and upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2022 version) released on the official website of the national development and Reform Commission on February 11, 2022, for enterprises with energy efficiency below the benchmark level, especially the benchmark level, it is necessary to guide the transformation and upgrading, strengthen technological research, promote agglomeration development and accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity.
The policy specifies that the energy efficiency level of high energy consuming industries will be linked to the proportion of production capacity in 2025, and the survival of the fittest will benefit the industry leaders. According to the national development and Reform Commission, the policy is further refined on the basis of the benchmark level and benchmark level of energy efficiency in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2021 version) issued in November 2021, and determines that the benchmark level of energy efficiency is linked to the target of capacity proportion during the 14th Five Year Plan period, including Px, coal to olefin / methanol / ethylene glycol, synthetic ammonia, calcium carbide, caustic soda Soda ash and other projects require the production capacity below the benchmark level to be basically cleared, and the directly affected inefficient production capacity accounts for 20 ~ 40% (by the end of 2020). During the policy transition period, these stock projects will not be transformed and upgraded, or replaced or eliminated. However, due to the advantages of production scale and technology, the advantages of energy efficiency of industry leaders are often more obvious, The document also points out that leading backbone enterprises should be guided to carry out mergers and acquisitions in relevant fields, focus on planning and building large-scale and integrated production bases, and improve the level of process equipment and energy utilization efficiency. This concept of survival of the fittest is complementary to the scientific assessment policy that the energy consumption of raw materials is not included in the total energy consumption control in the early stage, that is, "the right to energy consumption" = "the right to development". In the medium and long term, The situation that the strong are always strong is expected to be continuously strengthened.
In the medium and long term, the new policy of energy conservation and carbon reduction is expected to form supply side constraints, improve the profit center of the industry and benefit the leaders. The high energy consuming chemical industry involved in this policy is analyzed (see the chart below for details). According to the data of Baichuan and Longzhong, the average operating rate of most industries in recent years is about 60% (except ethylene, coal to olefin, caustic soda, soda ash, etc.), while the price historical quantile level is mostly below 50%. Considering the high boom of chemical prices in 21 years, it is greatly affected by the raw material end, Looking further at the historical quantile level of price difference, the hubs are also below 50%. Due to the serious homogenization of low-end products, the profitability of the industry has been damaged for a long time. Under the general trend of carbon neutralization, with the gradual implementation of the new policy of energy conservation and carbon reduction, the transformation and clearing of inefficient production capacity are gradually realized based on the level of energy efficiency, forming supply side constraints on high energy consuming industries such as oil refining and coal chemical industry. Compared with the supply side reform in 15-16 years, the corresponding industry profit center is expected to gradually rise in the medium and long term, Under the mechanism of survival of the fittest in energy efficiency, industry leaders will continue to benefit.
Investment suggestion: To sum up, leading companies in ethylene glycol, soda ash, calcium carbide and other industries are expected to benefit from the transformation and upgrading policies of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas of high energy consuming industries in the medium and long term. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , satellite chemistry, Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) .
Risk tip: the policy implementation is less than expected, and the macroeconomic performance is less than expected
