Key investment points
Core view of this week: according to the data of the first commercial vehicle, the sales volume of heavy trucks in January 2022 was 78000, with a year-on-year increase of – 57% and a month on month increase of + 39%. The sales volume of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) heavy trucks of major auto enterprises in January was 17000, with a year-on-year decrease of – 34%, which was 26 PCT narrower than that in December last year. Among the top nine heavy truck enterprises, the market share of four enterprises increased, of which Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) increased the most, up 7.4pct to 21.7% over the same period last year. We predict that with the end of the off-season from February to March and the introduction of steady growth policies, the recovery of the heavy truck industry may be earlier than expected. We recommend three main lines:
(1) independent brand leaders with strong new product cycle: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Byd Company Limited(002594) .
(2) parts enterprises closely related to the electric intelligent industrial chain with high growth certainty: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Guangdong Senssun Weighing Apparatus Group Ltd(002870) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) .
(3) heavy truck enterprises with increasing market share and expected to usher in a performance inflection point: Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) .
According to the data of the passenger Federation: it is estimated that 66000 vehicles are retailed on the 4th Sunday of January, a year-on-year decrease of 32%, and the market performance is abnormal due to the Spring Festival; On the fourth Sunday, 84000 vehicles were wholesale, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, and the performance was relatively stable. In the fourth quarter of last year, manufacturers’ production improved significantly, the product supply was sufficient, and the terminal promotion of some models increased, which was the best month to buy cars since the second half of 2020. Therefore, retail sales rebounded significantly in January and continued to strengthen compared with the beginning of 2021. At present, the wholesale data of manufacturers in January has not been locked, and the preliminary statistics are about 2.072 million, an increase of 2% compared with the same period last year and a decrease of 12% compared with December.
Important information: the fleet of autox Antu robotaxi exceeds 1000; NVIDIA announces termination of acquisition of arm; Qualcomm and Ferrari have reached strategic technical cooperation; Xiaopeng automobile is incorporated into Hong Kong stock connect; Kia and Yueda plan to increase capital by 900 million US dollars to form a joint venture; Amazon invests in velodyne, a lidar manufacturer, and subscribes up to 39.6 million shares, with an equity of about 16%; Intelligent driving company Yinjia technology completed tens of millions of yuan of round a financing.
Important announcement: Byd Company Limited(002594) : the company produced 91736 new energy vehicles (+ 309.7%) and sold 93168 new energy vehicles (+ 361.7%) in January; Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) : the company has been selected as the supplier of ABS actuator (including acceleration sensor) of SUV model of a foreign customer; Fuxin Dare Automotive Parts Co.Ltd(300473) : carcoustics, the holding subsidiary of the company, recently received a fixed-point letter from a well-known German vehicle manufacturer of electric vehicle battery fire protection products. The total sales amount in the life cycle is expected to be about 165 million euros; Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) : Anhui anmeike, a subsidiary of the company, has become a batch supplier of air suspension air supply unit for the new platform project of a new energy brand host factory in China. The life cycle of the project is 4 years and the total amount is about 100 million yuan; Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) : Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) in January, the automobile output was 467834 (+ 8.71%), and the group sold 455552 (+ 13.02%) in January.
Last week’s market review: last week, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose and fell by + 3.02%, – 0.78% and + 0.82% respectively. The auto sector fell 1.10% and performed weakly. Except for auto parts, all sub sectors of automobile recorded increases, of which the commercial passenger car sector increased the most, by 1.89%, and the passenger car sector increased the least, by 0.73%; The auto parts sector fell 2.60%.
New car listing statistics: two new cars were listed last week, namely the Range Rover Sport SVR peak collection and 2022 ga6.
Risk warning: the price of upstream raw materials has risen sharply; The impact of the shortage of automotive chips; Weak economic growth affects automobile demand.
