Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index increased by 3.02% and – 0.78% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index increased by 3.92%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. The retail index of the CITIC composite index and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by – 29.4% and – 99.2% respectively since 2024.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by 3.92%, ranking 14th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, 23 of the 29 CITIC primary industries rose. The top three industries were coal, catering tourism and petroleum and petrochemical, with an increase of 13.95%, 8.21% and 8.02% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 3.29%, ranking 12th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, 9 of the 29 CITIC first-class industries have risen. The top three industries are coal, banking and construction, with an increase of 9.36%, 8.73% and 4.14% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were gold jewelry, department stores and professional markets, with increases of 7.60%, 5.11% and 4.50% respectively. Since 2022, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are department stores, professional markets and gold jewelry, with an increase of 0.04%, – 0.50% and – 0.67% respectively.
In the past week, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 80 companies rose, 2 companies were flat and 11 companies fell. Over the past week, the top three companies were Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co.Ltd(002721) and Hongtu high tech, with an increase of 39.13%, 23.26% and 18.95% respectively. Since 2022, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 36 companies have increased, 2 companies have remained unchanged and 55 companies have fallen. Since 2022, the top three companies with growth rates are Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd(000419) and Shandong Hiking International Co.Ltd(600735) , with growth rates of 245.52%, 39.96% and 26.02% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
The retail data of the Spring Festival is mixed. The sales data of tax-free data, gold jewelry and prefabricated vegetables perform well, but the overall recovery of retail data is still not obvious, and consumers’ consumer confidence still needs more policy support from the government. From the sector trend, the retail sector is more active recently. Besides Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) ‘s benefit from the trend of digital currency, the prefabricated dishes, Baijiu retail channels and general merchandise are all more prominent, and the theme turns faster and more intense. We still recommend the gold and jewelry sector. We believe that 2022 is the great year of gold and jewelry. We suggest investors to treat the theme speculation sector rationally. We believe that the current fundamentals can not support the violent fluctuation of individual stock price, and the follow-up risk is high. Suggestions for next week: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
