Key investment points:
In 2022, the macro policy will be stable and effective, the national economy will be stable, and an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy will be implemented. The central economic work conference stressed the need to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry, and begin to correct the deviation of real estate policies. At the same time, it is noted that the central bank lowered the MLF interest rate on January 17. It is expected that the LPR will decrease with the MLF, which will play a certain role in driving the macro-economy. As the backbone of fixed asset investment, real estate and infrastructure are expected to start a new round of stable growth. We continue to give the industry a “recommended” rating.
According to the financial statistics and social financing data of January 2022 released by the central bank, the credit and social financing achieved growth in January, forming data support for the advance development of infrastructure and the advance approval of 1.46 trillion of new special debt in 2022 issued by the Ministry of Finance in advance. Special bonds are approved in advance, focusing on transportation infrastructure construction. Considering the delay in the issuance of special bonds, local infrastructure projects are expected to be launched one after another. In this context, the expectation of steady growth has been strengthened, the development of infrastructure has been steadily promoted, and the large infrastructure sector is expected to benefit first. Focus on China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) with high proportion of large infrastructure business.
This week, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on excluding the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing from the management of real estate loan concentration, which made it clear that the loans issued by banking financial institutions to indemnificatory rental housing projects holding the confirmation of indemnificatory rental housing projects are not included in the management of real estate loan concentration, Banking financial institutions should increase support for affordable rental housing. With favorable industrial policies, the downstream demand for real estate is expected to form support, focusing on China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) with rapid development of real estate business.
China’s carbon emission market has officially launched online trading, and power has become the first pilot industry. Shanghai Environment Group Co.Ltd(601200) the energy exchange predicts that industries with high carbon emissions such as steel, nonferrous smelting and building materials will be included in the scope of carbon emission trading in turn in 2022. For iron and steel, building materials and other industries, the low energy consumption and carbon capture technology owned by its leading enterprises will become an important force to promote carbon neutralization in the industry. Recommend Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) , focusing on Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) .
BIPV is an important development direction of green buildings. The 14th five year plan clearly proposes to accelerate the development of non fossil energy, adhere to both centralized and distributed development, and vigorously improve the scale of wind power and photovoltaic power generation. Prefabricated buildings are in line with the development direction of green buildings. The central government and provinces and cities continue to issue policies to promote the penetration of prefabricated buildings. The aging trend of construction workers is obvious, and the labor cost is also increasing. Prefabricated buildings have obvious advantages over traditional cast-in-place buildings in terms of labor cost. Focus on Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Hangxiao Steel Structure Co.Ltd(600477) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Yuanda housing and workers.
Risk warning: focus on the company’s performance less than expected; The implementation of policies in the real estate industry is less than expected; The growth rate of special bond issuance and infrastructure investment recovered less than expected; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The epidemic repeated or lasted longer than expected;
