Industry tracking (2022.2.5-2022.2.11)
On February 8, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on excluding the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing from the management of real estate loan concentration, which made it clear that the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing projects were not included in the management of real estate loan concentration, and encouraged banking financial institutions to comply with the principles of legal compliance, controllable risk and commercial sustainability, Increase support for the development of affordable rental housing. This notice further clarifies the existing arrangement of “in order to support the vigorous development of the housing rental market, the housing rental related loans will not be included in the calculation of the proportion of real estate loans” in the reply of the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission in December 2020, which means that the issuance of relevant loans by banks is no longer constrained by the concentration management indicators.
From the current investment direction of real estate loans, according to the data of the central bank, the development loan balance of affordable housing (including affordable rental housing, public rental housing and jointly owned property housing) in 2021q3 is 4.64 trillion yuan, accounting for only 9.03% of the total real estate loan balance, and the growth rate has been declining in recent years. After the promulgation of this notice, you can apply for more affordable housing development loans from commercial banks, increase the credit supply for affordable rental housing projects, and mobilize the participation enthusiasm of market subjects and social institutions.
The Ministry of housing and urban rural development said in January that it would expand the supply of affordable rental housing. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, 40 key cities initially planned to add 6.5 million units (rooms), which is expected to help 13 million new citizens and young people alleviate their housing difficulties. Among them, 2.4 million sets (rooms) of affordable rental housing were built and raised in 2022, an increase of 156% over 2021. The purpose of this notice is to provide financial support for affordable rental housing, help the construction of China’s housing security system, promote the structural reform of housing supply side, and establish a housing system with multi-body supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase.
Considering the relevant construction experience and the specific policies issued by various regions, the main contractors of affordable rental housing in the future are most likely to be urban investment enterprises, state-owned enterprises and real estate developers with experience in affordable housing construction or long-term rental apartment operation and management. Therefore, these owners will be the main beneficiaries of this policy.
Under the high base, the transaction of new houses, second-hand houses and land is weak
The new housing market traded 2.65 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 75.91%, down 43.65 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory was 154.88 million square meters, the second-line de urbanization accelerated, and the first-line, third-line and below de urbanization slowed down. The second-hand housing market traded 670000 square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 78.99%, down 44.97 PCT compared with the previous month. The land market traded 40000 square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 45.79%; The total turnover was 0 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 41.64%; The national average premium rate was + 31.27%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -8.08pct. This week, the Shenwan real estate index was + 4.00%, up 4.00pct from last week, ranking 15 / 31, ahead of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.18pct. In terms of H shares, the wind Hong Kong real estate index this week was + 2.52%, down 0.57pct from last week, ranking 6 / 11 higher, leading the Hang Seng Index by 1.16pct; The leading index of kroney real estate stocks was 4.35%, up 0.53pct from last week.
Grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
The industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support. With the increasing pressure on fundamentals and credit in the first quarter, the demand regulation policy needs to be further relaxed; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Policy support and actual M & A are expected to continue to land. Suggestions: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Xuhui holding group; 3) High quality property management: Country Garden service, xinchengyue service, Greentown service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
