Current key recommendations: (1) cement sector: under the background of “stable economic growth”, policies are intensively voiced, emphasizing that “infrastructure investment is moderately ahead of schedule”, local government special bonds and other funds are gradually in place, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first half of 2022 is relatively flexible. At the same time, the continuously promoted energy conservation and carbon reduction policy is conducive to promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction of cement manufacturers, optimizing the supply pattern of the industry and improving the competitive advantage of leading industries. (2) Glass fiber sector: the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation, which proposed to promote the construction of an energy supply system dominated by clean and low-carbon energy, and the continuous introduction of wind energy policies to support the demand for glass fiber for wind power. (3) Glass sector: after the festival, the middle and lower reaches of float glass market will be further replenished, especially the goods prepared by processing plants are concentrated, and the holiday inventory will be effectively reduced. The short-term processing plants started intensively, and the preparation of goods supported the production and sales of the float factory, which continued to be in good condition, and the price is still expected to rise further. Under the background of the dual carbon policy, photovoltaic glass has ushered in demand support. At the same time, the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of dual glass has also brought new growth rate to photovoltaic glass. However, affordable Internet access promotes the industry to reduce costs and increase efficiency, puts forward higher requirements for enterprise technology and cost control, and benefits the industry leaders with technology and cost advantages. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high, so it is rated as “recommended”.
Recommended cement sector: (1) macro aspect: since January 2022, policies have been intensively voiced, emphasizing that “infrastructure investment is moderately ahead of schedule”, local government special bonds and other funds are gradually in place, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first half of 2022 is relatively flexible. In addition, the policy of energy conservation and carbon reduction has been continuously promoted. The guidelines for the implementation of the upgrading system of energy conservation and carbon reduction in the cement industry clearly requires that by 2025, the proportion of clinker production capacity above the energy efficiency benchmark level in the cement industry will reach 30%, and the clinker production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level will be basically cleared. The effect of energy conservation and carbon reduction in the industry is remarkable, and the ability of green and low-carbon development will be greatly enhanced. (2) Fundamentals: in the first week after the Spring Festival, China’s cement market demand is affected by off-season factors and continuous rain and snow weather. The market demand has not been started, and there is only a small amount of demand for bagged goods. The project and mixing plant are basically at a standstill. The vast majority of cement enterprises implement staggered peak production and shutdown maintenance. It is expected that after the 15th day of the first month, with the resumption of construction projects and mixing plants, the demand for cement will gradually start. Key areas Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) and Jinzhou Cihang Group Co.Ltd(000587) are recommended Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) for cement.
Recommended glass fiber industry: (1) macro aspect: the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the opinions on improving energy green and low-carbon transformation systems, mechanisms, policies and measures, and proposed to promote the construction of an energy supply system dominated by clean and low-carbon energy. Focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases, upgrade and transform the existing coal-fired power units in the region, explore and establish a mechanism for coordination between the sending and receiving ends to provide regulation for the transmission of new energy power, support the construction, integration and generation of new energy power, and support the demand for glass fiber for wind power. (2) Fundamentals: the market price of alkali free tank kiln roving this week was stable and small. In the first week after the festival, the quotation of most tank kiln factories in China was basically stable, and the prices of some factories were slightly loose, but the overall price remained high. The overall delivery of goods gradually recovered after the festival. The output of some factories in the northern market was limited, and the supply and demand performance was relatively stable. During the week, the prices of China’s major electronic yarn kilns fell again, mainly affected by the limited demand support and the general enthusiasm for picking up goods in the downstream market. In the later stage, with the further commencement of deep-processing enterprises, it is expected that the demand may improve, coupled with the cost support, the short-term market is temporarily stable. In the medium and long term, the macro level will continue to promote the large-scale and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, and the future demand for wind power will be better. The addition and replacement of new energy vehicles and wind power provide support for the demand for glass fiber. In addition, from the supply side, the addition of medium and long-term glass fiber production capacity is limited, and the high prosperity of glass fiber industry is expected to continue. In terms of individual stocks, recommend industry leaders China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , and pay attention to Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
Glass industry: further replenishment will be made in the middle and lower reaches of float glass market after the festival, especially the centralized preparation of processing plants, and the holiday inventory will be effectively reduced. The short-term processing plants started intensively, and the preparation of goods supported the production and sales of the float factory, which continued to be in good condition, and the price is still expected to rise further. Supply: ignition and cold repair plans were put in place for individual production lines during the month, and glass was produced for individual production lines, and the overall production capacity continued to remain high. In terms of inventory, the post holiday inventory of float factory is relatively normal, and the inventory of manufacturers in some regions has been reduced to a low level recently. In terms of demand: the downstream processing plants will be started in a centralized manner in a short time, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to be replenished. However, with the rise in prices, traders’ expectations for further preparation weakened. Long term focus on the order changes of downstream processing plants. In terms of cost, the price of soda ash is stronger, and the production cost of float glass continues to rise. The current profit is good and the impact is limited. Focus on industry leaders Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) with cost advantages, and focus on Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi Glass, Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
Other consumer building materials: the waterproof industry has broad development prospects and the market stock is increasing. After the introduction of new industry standards, the market is expected to be structurally adjusted and the concentration is further improved. Under the background of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic roofs are gradually rising, and the service life requirements of photovoltaic houses facing the waterproof layer have become a new growth point of the waterproof industry. In addition, the recovery expectation of infrastructure and real estate end storage is optimistic about the improvement of the demand of the waterproof industry. Focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) . The gypsum board leader Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) is recommended. The layout of “one body and two wings” of the company is accelerated, and the waterproof and coating sectors are developing rapidly. We are optimistic about the future performance growth. The pipe sector focuses on the leading Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Hong Kong stock and China Liansu. The coating sector pays attention to Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) .
Risk warning: the construction progress of infrastructure projects is less than expected; The market demand is less than expected; Focus on the company’s performance not meeting expectations; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the economy; Adverse changes in the macro environment.
