The price limit affects market sentiment in the short term, and the high profit of the industry continues. From February 7 to February 11, wind data showed that the closing price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port rose from 1055 yuan / ton to 1105 yuan / ton, then fell back to 1085 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 30 yuan / ton. In the first week after the Spring Festival, coal mines resumed production one after another, but the downstream demand recovered rapidly and the price showed an upward trend. On Wednesday, relevant departments held a meeting to ensure supply and stabilize the price, interviewed some coal enterprises with falsely high prices, and then the price began to be reduced to near the price limit. Due to the continuous rain and snow weather, the load of the downstream Nanfang power plant is high, and the inland inventory is lower than that of the coast, so there is a demand for replenishment. At the same time, the resumption of work in the downstream of non electricity is imminent, and the procurement demand is also obvious, but the procurement rhythm may wait for the price to stabilize, but the procurement will be delayed but will not be absent, and the demand side support is still strong. In terms of coal price, the coal price since January 2022 is much higher than that in the same period last year. We believe that the high coal price in 2022 is expected to remain high, and the profits of Listed Companies in the sector are expected to remain high. At present, the valuations of Listed Companies in the sector are at a low level, and high profits help to promote the valuation of the industry.
Coke price is expected to be weak in the short term. According to wind data, as of February 11, the factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke closed at 2800 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The market price of Linfen secondary metallurgical coke closed at 2480 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. In terms of ports, the price of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) primary metallurgical coke was 2910 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 400 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, in terms of supply, considering the stricter environmental protection policies in some areas of the Winter Olympic Games, the production level of coke enterprises has been slightly affected. The downstream steel mills have made great efforts to limit production, and the demand for coke has decreased significantly, resulting in the recovery of inventory of some coke enterprises. At present, the coke supply is slightly loose. On the whole, the decline of coal price at the raw material end has weakened the support for coke. At the same time, the inventory of coke enterprises has accumulated to varying degrees, and the demand for coke is weakened under the substantial production restriction of steel mills. The supply and demand of coke remains loose. It is expected that the coke market may operate stably and weakly in the short term.
Coking coal price or short-term pressure operation. According to wind data, as of February 11, the price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 2830 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. As of February 11, the spot price of hard coking coal at Fengjing mine in Australia was US $420 / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. In terms of origin, according to the coal resources network, the low sulfur cycle ratio in Shanxi decreased by 210 yuan / ton, the high sulfur cycle ratio in Shanxi decreased by 115 yuan / ton, and the cycle ratio of Changzhi injection coal decreased by 100 yuan / ton. According to the coal resources network, after the festival, coal mines all over the country resumed production, and the supply of coking coal market increased. In the downstream, due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the production restriction degree of coke steel enterprises has increased to varying degrees, and the storage of raw coal in the plant is relatively sufficient, so the demand for raw coal is low. Overall, the coking coal market is expected to be under pressure in the short term.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are also expected to face value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended.
Risk tips: 1) risk of economic slowdown. 2) Risk of a sharp fall in coal prices. 3) Risk of policy change.
