Main points:
The cleanliness of power generation is an important starting point of “double carbon”, and information technology to promote system upgrading is an inevitable trend
Improving the cleanliness of electric energy is the key point to realize double carbon, which can be understood from two aspects: 1) demand side: the proportion of China’s terminal electric energy consumption is gradually increasing. It is expected that the proportion of China’s electric energy in terminal energy will reach 30% / 35% in 2025 and 2030. 2) Supply side: the carbon dioxide emission of the power industry ranks in the forefront, and the cleaning of electric energy is a “shortcut” to double carbon. Compared with the total investment of the national power grid during the “five trillion” period, the total investment in power grid increased by nearly 2.57% year-on-year. According to estimates, the proportion of information investment during the 14th Five Year Plan period is expected to reach 14% – 17%, with a total investment of 450 billion yuan. Specifically, informatization can optimize the whole link of the power industry chain. Informatization technology is needed in many fields, such as large-scale regional power detection and regulation, green power trading system, power grid information security and so on. We believe that informatization is the key to optimizing the efficiency of all links of the power industry. With the structural injection of natural demand plus investment, power informatization is expected to be in a high boom for a long time.
Grasp the three investment opportunities of power system and accelerate the release of information demand
Under the background of “double carbon”, the transformation of power system is accelerated, and power informatization has become a high-quality track. From the perspective of the total investment of the two networks, the intelligent investment of the power grid during the 13th Five Year Plan period accounts for about 13%. We calculate that the proportion of the intelligent investment of the two networks during the 14th Five Year Plan period is expected to increase to 14% – 17%, and the investment amount will increase from about 300 billion yuan to 450 + billion yuan. According to the calculation of specific links, power distribution is the main battlefield, accounting for 31% and 32% of the total investment respectively. Based on this, we sort out three main lines of power informatization investment from the bottom logic: new informatization opportunities brought by clean energy: the construction of scenery new energy contains three needs: Construction and design software, energy storage and grid connected intelligent system and long-distance transmission. We expect that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the three will bring about 20-40 billion yuan of power information market every year, and CAGR is about 20%. Efficient acceleration of intelligent upgrading of power grid system: the existing power system faces multiple problems such as transmission power loss and insufficient stability. Information means such as smart grid, virtual power plant and Microgrid are expected to become the core of solving the problem. Among them, intellectualization is the core of the two networks’ investment. We expect that the intellectualization investment on both sides of the two networks is expected to accelerate during the 14th Five Year Plan period, with a total amount of 200 + billion yuan. The change on the application side brings new system requirements: driven by the superposition policy of natural attributes of electric energy, there are new information requirements on the application side: 1) dual control of energy consumption: using information means to monitor and manage the energy consumption of all links of the enterprise; 2) Green Power Trading: marketization of electricity price and establishment of power trading system and other platforms; 3) New application scenario: the popularity of electric vehicles has led to the emergence of C-end platforms such as aggregation charging platform.
Investment advice
The trend of electric power informatization industry is highly deterministic, and its huge industrial chain and market space accommodate many high-quality enterprises. According to the three main investment lines of informatization we have combed, we suggest to pay attention to: Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) : take digitization as the core and build 2b2c businesses at both ends at the same time; Ygsoft Inc(002063) : power system ERP leader, layout wisdom + field; Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) : the leader of the power industry chain, and the four core businesses cover the whole industry chain; South Network Technology: with self-developed software as the core, it provides a comprehensive solution of “technical service + intelligent equipment”; Dongfang Electronics Co.Ltd(000682) : layout the whole industrial chain of smart grid, covering power system automation, informatization and energy management system solutions; Beijing Forever Technology Co.Ltd(300365) : a leading enterprise of BIM design software in the power industry, and gradually build an energy Internet Ecosystem; Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) : focus on using AI technology to help power enterprises with digital transformation, and deeply cultivate the core intelligent operation and maintenance analysis and management system.
Risk tips
1) technology research and development is less than expected; 2) Policy support is less than expected; 3) Downstream demand was lower than expected.
