Core view
Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle this week, kitchen appliances, small household appliances and white household appliances showed relatively strong performance. The CSI 300 index rose 0.82% this week. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, kitchen appliances, small household appliances and white household appliances rose 2.28%, 1.71% and 1.59% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 1.46pct, 0.89pct and 0.77pct respectively. The furniture sector rose 0.18% this week. The lighting electrician, black household appliances and service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sectors fell 0.004%, 0.18% and 6.72% respectively this week, They lost 0.64pct, 0.83pct, 1.01pct and 7.54pct respectively.
Domestic sales: affected by factors such as the advance of the Spring Festival, the year-on-year decline in the transaction volume of second-hand houses expanded in January. (1) Upstream raw material price: this week, the price of chemical raw materials for soft furniture rose, the price of copper and aluminum rose, and the price of plastic raw materials rose. (2) China's real estate demand: in December 2021, the year-on-year negative growth rate of new house sales area expanded, and the year-on-year positive growth rate of completed area narrowed; In January 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to decline year-on-year. According to the real estate data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national residential sales area decreased by 19.4% year-on-year in December 2021 and 10.2% year-on-year in December 2019; In terms of second-hand housing transactions, in January 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in China's top 10 cities was 39200 units, a year-on-year decrease of 44%; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistics of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses in China was about 299000 units in December 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%. (3) Retail tracking: in December 2021, the retail sales of furniture decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, and the retail sales of household appliances decreased by 6% year-on-year. According to the monitoring data of online kitchen appliances, the sales of online kitchen appliances increased by 20.24% year-on-year, and the sales of online kitchen appliances and integrated kitchen appliances decreased by 16.24% year-on-year in 2024, 2024 and 2024 respectively. According to the statistics of Amoy data platform, in January 2022, the sales of key brands of integrated stoves and small kitchen appliances continued to grow negatively year-on-year, and the sales of key brands of clean appliances fluctuated year-on-year.
Export: in December, the export volume of furniture industry turned to negative growth year-on-year, and the export volume of home appliance industry maintained positive growth year-on-year.
(1) overseas real estate demand: in December 2021, the sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 7% year-on-year and continued to grow negatively; In December, the number of new construction projects increased by 2% year-on-year and continued to grow positively. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: in December 2021, the export volume of furniture industry turned to a year-on-year negative growth (- 4%), and the export volume of home appliance industry maintained a year-on-year positive growth (18%). According to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, in December 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of electric ovens, toasters, electric frying pans and other categories increased significantly compared with the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports of range hoods and other categories decreased
Investment proposal and investment object
The demand for domestic sales and exports in the post real estate cycle continues to grow rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to the customized home leaders Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572, buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833, overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) (300616, overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (603801, not rated), and software furniture leaders Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (603816, not rated); Benefiting from the high growth of emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, it is suggested to pay attention to China's floor sweepers Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leaders Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486, overweight), Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169, buy), small household appliances leaders with continuous category innovation Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) (002242, overweight), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (002705, buy), Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) (002959, overweight), Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) (300824, overweight).
Risk tips
The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials
