Under the expectation of credit development, bank stocks strengthened significantly in the first week after the Spring Festival. In the context of tightening international liquidity, the people’s Bank of China has maintained the policy rhythm of wide currency and wide credit, which is also confirmed in the latest monetary policy implementation report. This provides strong support for the performance of bank stocks in at least the first quarter.
With the release of credit data in January, the consensus of the market on credit exceeding expectations will gradually become a concern about the sustainability of credit growth, and the trading signal will become blurred again. However, our long-standing recommendation is to avoid judging the total credit data and give a direct answer from the changes of credit structure and the micro incentives of banks: the policy supported microenterprises + personal loans + wealth management + asset quality is still the gold portfolio. Keep the recommended order unchanged, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Banking stocks: the industry index rebounded
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by 6.20%, 6.20% and 8.67% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 7th, 7th and 2nd among the 31 Shenwan industries.
On a weekly basis, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Xiamen Bank Co.Ltd(601187) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) share prices rose by 10.11%, 8.21%, 8.16% and 8.02% respectively. The monthly situation is the same as the weekly situation. Since the beginning of the year, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) have increased by more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: the net withdrawal of money and the decline of inter-bank market interest rate
The total amount of money put in this week was 100 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 900 billion yuan, and the net return of money was 800 billion yuan, a decrease of 100 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the currency has realized a net return of 600 billion yuan.
This week, the inter-bank bond pledge repo rate and interbank lending rate decreased.
On February 11, dr007 was 1.85%, down 34bps compared with last Friday. Dr001 was 2.01%, down 31bps compared with last Friday.
The overnight lending rate was 1.86%, down 32bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.18%, down 14 BPS from last Friday.
Interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate
This week, the issuing interest rate of 1m and 3M interbank certificates of deposit decreased, and the issuing interest rate of 6m interbank certificates of deposit increased. On February 11, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.28%, 2.50% and 2.63% respectively, with changes of – 4bps, – 22bps and + 25bps respectively compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread of China’s bonds widened and the term interest spread of US bonds narrowed
This week, the yield of 1y treasury bonds decreased, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds increased, and the term interest spread expanded. On February 11, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 1.92% and 2.79% respectively, with changes of – 3bps and + 9bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.87%, up 12bps from last Friday.
This week, the yield of 1y US bonds increased, the yield of 10Y US bonds decreased, and the term spread narrowed. On February 11, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 1.07% and 1.92% respectively, with changes of + 18bps and – 1bp respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.85%, down 19bps from last Friday.
Us liquidity indicators: the debt interest margin of non-financial enterprises decreased, and the yield of tips decreased
(1) on February 10, the US guaranteed overnight financing interest rate was 0.05%, the same as last Friday; (2) On February 11, the adjusted spread of US corporate bond options was 3.44%, down 7bps from last Friday; (3) On February 11, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 0.51%, down 3bps from last Friday.
Investment advice
Under the expectation of credit development, bank stocks strengthened significantly in the first week after the Spring Festival. In the context of tightening international liquidity, the people’s Bank of China has maintained the policy rhythm of wide currency and wide credit, which is also confirmed in the latest monetary policy implementation report. This provides strong support for the performance of bank stocks in at least the first quarter.
With the release of credit data in January, the consensus of the market on credit exceeding expectations will gradually become a concern about the sustainability of credit growth, and the trading signal will become blurred again. However, our long-standing recommendation is to avoid judging the total credit data and give a direct answer from the changes of credit structure and the micro incentives of banks: the policy supported microenterprises + personal loans + wealth management + asset quality is still the gold portfolio. Keep the recommended order unchanged, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
