Key events of this week: 1) social finance and special bonds have made a good start: according to the preliminary statistics of the central bank, the increment of social finance scale in January was 6.17 trillion, an increase of 984.2 billion year-on-year, and the increment of social finance in a single month hit a record high; In January, 698.9 billion local bonds were issued, with a year-on-year increase of 336.5 billion (special bonds accounted for 69.3%). 2) The steady growth of pipe network and water conservancy benefits has been strengthened: Recently, the regulatory authorities issued a notice requiring local governments to make up a number of special debt projects based on the capital needs of the projects submitted in the early stage, with the focus on urban pipe network construction, water conservancy and other fields. 3) The supervision of pre-sale funds is clear, and the cash flow of real estate enterprises is expected to improve: according to the Financial Association, the national measures for the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing have been issued recently to clarify the supervision amount and use conditions of pre-sale funds. While continuing to strengthen the management of pre-sale funds account, the measures further improve the flexibility of the use of pre-sale funds. 4) Trend of in-depth competitive synthesis in the cement industry: Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) disclosed the fixed increase results on February 9, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) subsidiaries and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) subsidiaries were allocated 1 / 5 / 300 million respectively, becoming the third / sixth / tenth largest shareholder of the company. 5) China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) continue to promote internationalization and product structure optimization: Recently, the company announced that it would terminate the 100000 ton glass fiber construction project in India and build a new 120000 ton glass fiber tank furnace wire drawing production line in Egypt. At the same time, it plans to invest in the 150000 ton glass fiber chopped precursor project in Chengdu.
This week’s view: Social Finance and special bonds have made a good start and continue to recommend the target of stable growth chain; The marginal recovery of real estate and the opportunity of brand building materials throughout the year are worth looking forward to. The growth rate of social finance is higher than expected, the implementation of projects / special bonds is accelerated, and the capital construction is expected to grow steadily. Attention is paid to investment opportunities in industries with high proportion of capital construction such as cement, water reducer, pipe and waterproof. 1) Under the expectation of stable growth in the short term and rising temperature, the excess return of the cement sector is prominent, the industry has high prosperity toughness in 22 years, and industrial integration + extension in the medium and long term. 2) From the perspective of water reducing agent, capital construction pull + gross profit margin rise + functional materials open up growth space. 3) The price of float glass rose strongly. We judged that it was mainly due to the release of replenishment demand from downstream traders. In the future, with the continuation of demand toughness, the price is expected to remain relatively flexible; Photovoltaic glass may have price elasticity at the bottom of the cycle. It is recommended to focus on the profit elasticity and long-term growth brought by the expansion of traditional glass into the field of photovoltaic glass. 4) The investment opportunities of brand building materials and new materials are promising throughout the year. In terms of real estate, policy marginal relaxation + increased demand, affordable housing with non real estate developers as the main body, and the demand of the real estate chain is expected to gradually pick up. We believe that the expected bottom of the real estate corresponds to the bottom of the valuation of brand building materials (refer to the resumption in 2014 / 18). The double repair of the performance and valuation of brand building materials in 22 years is worth looking forward to, and the leading certainty is high. 5) In the field of new materials, carbon fiber / high-purity quartz sand / electronic cover glass ushered in the industrial opportunity of high demand + domestic alternative resonance, and UTG welcomed the outbreak of demand. 6) The glass fiber cycle weakened, the roving boom is expected to continue, and the price center of electronic cloth fell.
Under the expected warming of steady growth, the cost performance of cement sector allocation is prominent. This week, we released the in-depth report “cement: the trend of the sector in the previous stable growth cycles of the resumption of trading, and the current allocation cost performance is outstanding”. Through the resumption of trading, we found that the cement sector can achieve about 10% excess return in each round of stable growth policy setting and data window period, the economic data verification period shows a volatile trend, and the fundamentals verification period has a high correlation with performance. At present, it is an important layout time point after setting the tone of steady growth. The cement sector is expected to continue to benefit from the expected warming. In addition, the fundamentals will also have better support to determine its continuity: we believe that although there is a small single digit decline in demand in 22 years, it is expected to remain at a high platform period of more than 2 billion tons. Under the contraction of demand, the willingness of enterprise supply coordination is expected to increase, and the coal price center is expected to move down compared with 2021. Industry integration will accelerate the optimization of pattern, and leading enterprises will actively layout aggregate Commercial and mixed markets contribute to growth, and the cost performance is prominent under the low valuation. This week, the national cement market price continued to fall slightly month on month, with a decrease of 0.3%. The price reduction areas are mainly Jiangxi, Sichuan and Zhanjiang, Guangdong, with a range of 20 yuan / ton; The price of cement clinker along the Yangtze River Delta will be increased by 30 yuan / ton. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the demand of China’s cement market is affected by off-season factors and continuous rain and snow weather. The market demand has not been started, there is only a small amount of demand for bagged goods. The project and mixing plant are basically at a standstill, and the vast majority of cement enterprises implement off peak production and shutdown inspection and repair. It is expected that after the 15th day of the first month, with the resumption of construction projects and mixing plants, the demand for cement will gradually start. The national storage capacity ratio was 66.6%, with a month on month ratio of + 4.4pct and a year-on-year ratio of + 11.0pct; The shipment rate was 4.13%, with a chain comparison of -7.5pct and a year-on-year comparison of -13.1pct. It is recommended to focus on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , and it is recommended to focus on Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , China building materials, Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) .
Continue to focus on recommending China’s concrete water reducing agent industry leader Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) . Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) recommendation logic: the company’s production capacity planning is clear, which is expected to continue to grow in the next three years and the market share will continue to increase; The price of raw material ethylene oxide is running at a low level. At the end of September, the price increase of the company is gradually implemented, and the gross profit margin in 22 years may increase significantly; The company’s functional materials (such as anti crack and anti-seepage agent, wind power grouting material, etc.) maintain a high growth, and is expected to grow into an admixture platform enterprise.
After the construction glass Festival, the downstream replenishment promoted the price to strengthen; Photovoltaic glass may have price elasticity at the bottom of the cycle. At the end of this week, the average price of float glass was 2170 yuan / ton (mom + 72, yoy + 26); Weekend inventory of 43.42 million heavy containers (mom + 832, yoy + 1533); The production capacity of glass in production is 174375t / D (mom-600). Before the festival, the processing plants prepared less goods, and some traders continued to replenish after the festival. The production and sales of the float factory quickly returned to a large-scale state, driving the price stronger. We believe that under the “guaranteed delivery” of real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained. On the supply side, considering the high capacity utilization rate of the industry, the subsequent new capacity is limited; In addition, at present, in the production line, the production capacity with kiln age of 8-10 years / more than 10 years accounts for 14.1% / 14.5% respectively. The cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction. At present, the price and cost of glass are close. Under the high cost of raw materials / energy, manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the price of glass is expected to continue to pick up. In terms of photovoltaic glass, the mainstream quotation of 3.2mm coating at the end of this week is 25 yuan / square (the same month on month, year-on-year – 40%); The production capacity was flat on a year-on-year basis (412t / D, with a month on month ratio of + 25%). For photovoltaic glass, under the dual control of energy consumption, the new supply may be less than expected, and the price at the bottom of the industrial cycle may be upward elastic. Optimistic about the revenue proportion of traditional glass enterprises in the field of photovoltaic glass and improve their cost competitiveness. Continue to focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) and suggest paying attention to Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) , Xinyi Glass, Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) .
Brand building materials: the corresponding valuation at the end of expectation is low, and b-end brand building materials enterprises welcome light packaging. 1) Since 21q4, “bottom of real estate policy + broad real estate market (affordable housing)” + landing of credit risk + stabilization and decline of raw material prices, and the expected bottom of brand building materials has been established. 2) From the 14-year and 18-year recovery, the expected bottom of the real estate corresponds to the bottom of the valuation of brand building materials. 3) Leading enterprises have strengthened their competitiveness and highlighted their growth (category expansion and application expansion) during the pressure period of the industry. The credit impairment of major enterprises has been implemented in 21 years, and the performance and valuation are expected to be restored in 22 years.
Leading enterprises of brand building materials have advantages in terms of brand / Channel / cost / capital. They have the ability to cross the cycle in terms of competitiveness and growth. They are the first to stand out from the encirclement in the process of building the bottom, seize the leading position and actively layout the leaders. We recommend Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , ad shares, Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , it is suggested to pay attention to China Liansu, Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , D&O Home Collection Co.Ltd(002798) .
New materials: 1) carbon fiber boom continues: at the end of this week, the average price of carbon fiber market was 187000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year + 4.7), the average price of large tow was 147000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year + 2.2), and the average price of small tow was 225000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year + 7.0); At the weekend, the inventory of carbon fiber factory was 12 tons (Mom-1, yoy-13). The raw material acrylonitrile market operated weakly and stably, and the price of precursor remained high. We believe that the investment logic of the civil carbon fiber industry lies not only in the high demand growth (wind, light, hydrogen, etc.), but also in the “favorable climate, favorable location and harmonious people”. After seizing the opportunity to catch up, we will further expand the scale and cost advantage and realize the historical opportunity of “domestic substitution” and transcendence. Under the barriers of high technology, technology and capital, those who win the “raw silk” win the world. In the medium and long term, with reference to glass fiber, the industry penetration can be improved or rely on “price” for “demand”. We suggest paying attention to the carbon fiber leader Zhongfu Shenying (to be listed), Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , precursor leader Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , and Hengshen shares; Carbon fiber equipment manufacturer Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) ; Downstream manufacturers of Hongfa {6833}, composite materials, etc. 2) For the quartz glass industry, benefiting from the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity / the transformation of photovoltaic cells from p-type to n-type, the demand for high-purity quartz sand is growing rapidly, the supply side is newly added or limited, and the supply and demand is expected to maintain a tight balance; The demand for semiconductors and military quartz materials is booming, and the barriers to qualification certification are high. Leading enterprises are expected to continue to increase the market share, and Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) and Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) are recommended. 3) Electronic cover glass: Chinese enterprises have achieved a technological breakthrough and passed the downstream certification. Under the condition of improving the penetration rate of domestic mobile phones and ensuring the safety of the supply chain, domestic substitution is accelerated. It is recommended to pay attention to the iterative breakthrough of electronic cover technology and complete the Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) verified by downstream mobile phone manufacturers. 4) UTG: the penetration acceleration of folding screen mobile phones + alternative CPI trend is obvious, and the demand welcomes the outbreak; Take the lead in realizing technological breakthrough and benefiting mass production enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) of UTG mass production and shipment.
Glass fiber: the industry cycle is weakened and the boom is expected to continue. This week, the average price of 2400tex winding direct yarn was 6100 yuan / ton (unchanged month on month, year-on-year + 367); The average price of electronic yarn G75 is 11250 yuan / ton (mom-1000, yoy + 1600); The mainstream price of electronic cloth is 4.5 yuan / meter (Mom – 0.8). We expect that the new capacity of the industry will be limited in 22 years, with roving / electronic yarn of about 42 / 100000 tons respectively, and the production line will be put into operation more dispersed. We expect the marginal new capacity of 22q1-22q4 to be 1.7/1.7/3.3/13000 tons / quarter respectively, with a relatively mild impact. We expect that the global effective production capacity / demand of glass fiber in 22 years will be 9.36/9.43 million tons respectively. The supply and demand are in tight balance. Under the low inventory, the price boom is expected to continue. The energy cost of glass fiber accounts for about 20%, and the energy consumption is still high. Under the dual control of energy consumption, it is more difficult to increase the new capacity of the industry, and the uncertainty of landing rhythm increases. We believe that the new production capacity will still be dominated by leading enterprises, and the industry pattern is expected to continue to be optimized. The leader has core competitiveness such as cost and technology, and the continuous upgrading of product structure will hedge the periodicity to a certain extent. The competitiveness of the leader in the glass fiber industry is significantly enhanced whether from the perspective of increasing market share or continuous decline in cost. We expect that the profit of the bottom leader in the next round is expected to increase significantly compared with history. We continue to focus on recommending glass fiber leaders China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) (clear capacity expansion planning, gradual realization of growth, strong anti risk ability of industrial chain integration), Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; Demand is lower than expected; Excessive new capacity; Poor capital turnover.
