Investment advice
In the core portfolio, there is a core combination of the [core portfolio] { Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) and {000000768 { Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , and {000002049 {{000000000768 {[core portfolio of the core portfolio of the [core portfolio of the core portfolio of the [core portfolio of the core portfolio of the [core portfolio of the [core portfolio of the core combination of the core set set set set set of the core portfolio of the [core portfolio] {{60089600893} {6008989893} {{60076760 {{60076760}, and {600316 316} {{{{600316 {{ Winsan(Chengdu) Medical Science And Technology Company Limited(600767) {{{{{{600969696969696967} {{{{{{{6009638}, and {{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{123}, Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) 、 Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) 、 Zhejiang Dali Technology Co.Ltd(002214) 、 Xi’An Bright Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(688333) 、 China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) 、 Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) 、 Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) 、 Raytron Technology Co.Ltd(688002) 、 Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985)
[last week’s report][ China Marine Information Electronics Company Limited(600764) ] depth: the leader of ship underwater acoustic defense, endogenous and epitaxial two wheel drive; [ Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ] depth: aviation brake industry leader, military civilian coordinated development, entering the fast track of performance; [ Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) ] Yiji group: ensure a good start in the first quarter; The company’s first quarterly results will be accelerated.
[views of this week] (1) we judge that the performance of central military enterprises in the first quarter is expected to make a good start. Ordnance Group: in 2021, the net profit increased by 17% year-on-year and the revenue increased by 7.5% year-on-year. Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) group: ensure that all indicators achieve a good start in the first quarter. According to the report on the official website, Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) group’s first morning survey meeting in 2022, the chairman stressed: think about the whole year, focus on the first quarter, strive to ensure a good start in the first quarter, and welcome the victory of the 20th CPC National Congress with excellent results. (2) The high outlook and medium and long-term investment logic of the military industry have not changed, and the investment value is highlighted by this round of adjustment. Since the beginning of the year, Shenwan national defense military industry index has fallen by 18%. At present, the overall PE is 59 times, 28% of the historical high, and the configuration value is prominent. (3) Endogenous epitaxial two wheel drive: firmly optimistic about the military industry from 2022 to 2023, and the index has great room for rise; In 2022, as the last year of the “three-year action plan” of state-owned enterprises, the mixed reform / incentive / asset securitization will be promoted in an all-round way, the epitaxial growth will exceed expectations, and the military industry will be driven by endogenous + epitaxial growth.
[core view] the deterministic growth of national defense is high. In 2022, it will enter the two wheel drive of “business cycle + asset integration”, “endogenous + extension”, “domestic demand + foreign trade” and “military products + civilian products”. The military industry index is expected to replicate the performance of the wind power index in the second half of 2021 in 2022, and the latter ranks first: (1) under the “century change”, the deterministic growth of national defense industry is high, “Preparing for war / 2027 / building a strong national defense commensurate with the second largest economy” is the established direction. Large contract liabilities in 2021 highlight the high boom of the 14th five year plan. (2) In the next few years, the securitization of national defense and military assets and the reorganization and listing of core military products are expected to set off a new round of climax. We will pay attention to the reorganization process of China Shipbuilding Group / Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) / CETC / AVIC / Aerospace Science and industry / ordnance industry and other groups.
(3) China’s tanks / UAVs / trainers / fighters are globally competitive, and the demand for foreign trade is gradually rising. Domestic large aircraft / civil aviation engine and other industrial chains are also gradually growing.
1. National defense and military industry: scale effect + refined management, “small core and large cooperation”, and the performance flexibility of the main engine factory in the next five years; The “three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform” is over, and equity incentive is expected to boost the release of performance: Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) , China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) .
2. Continue to be optimistic about high-tech barriers, high scarcity and competitive high-temperature alloy / composite materials / midstream component level supporting enterprises / engine forging and casting / information core midstream and other midstream and upstream sub circuits: Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) , Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Xi’An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) , Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Xi’An Bright Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(688333) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) .
3. Missile and informatization: Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , Zhejiang Dali Technology Co.Ltd(002214) .
The focus of defense Hong Kong stocks is optimistic: AVIC.
Risk tips: 1) the rhythm of equity incentive and asset securitization is lower than expected; 2) the delivery progress of important products is lower than expected
