Precious metals: the situation in Ukraine and Russia has accelerated and the risk aversion has boosted the enthusiasm of gold. Gold: ① nominal interest rate: the annual rate of CPI in the United States rose by 7.5% without quarterly adjustment in January, reaching a new high for 40 years, significantly exceeding the expected value of 7.2-7.3%. The market predicts that the probability of raising interest rates by 50bp in March has reached more than 90%. At the end of the week, the US dollar index strengthened, and the yield of 10Y US bonds rose to more than 2%. In the long run, the upward pressure on gold is gradually increasing. ② Inflation expectations: implied inflation in the US bond market rose to 2.43% from 2.40% this week. The deterioration of Ukrainian Russian relations accelerated, the market’s short-term concerns about the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a major energy producer, intensified, and the VIX panic index rose to 30.99. Gold prices, as a safe haven metal, showed a sharp rise in band under the concern that higher oil prices pushed up CPI expectations and the escalation of political conflict. In addition, the optimistic expectation of commodity prices represented by crude oil also makes the market game. The US interest rate hike policy is difficult to curb the continuous rise of inflation in the short term. Under the increase of risk aversion and high inflation, the market’s enthusiasm for gold remains unabated. Pay attention to the subsequent changes in the political situation in Ukraine and Russia. If the political situation eases now, the gold price may be under pressure in the short term.
Base metals: spot supply and demand continues to be tight, and pay attention to the rhythm of accumulating stocks after the festival in the short term. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, the annual rate of CPI in the United States rose by 7.5% without quarterly adjustment in January, reaching a new high in 40 years. The market bet that the United States will adopt a more radical interest rate increase policy, which dragged down the sharp decline of non-ferrous metals; China’s social financing reached 6.17 trillion yuan in January, greatly exceeding market expectations, which verified that China’s steady growth policy continued to work and was conducive to the expectation of long-term commodity demand; ② On the supply side, four communities in Peru once again blocked Las bambas copper mine, which may stop copper production on February 20; The overhaul of Nanfang smelter affected the reduction of production by more than 40000 tons. In January, China’s electrolytic copper production was only 818100 tons, a month on month decrease of 6.0%, which was significantly lower than expected; ③ In terms of demand & inventory, in the first week after the Spring Festival, the downstream resumed work slowly, superimposed with the rise of copper price and poor factory procurement. China’s SHFE inventory increased by 66200 tons to 106600 tons month on month, slightly higher than the level in the same period of previous years. In terms of spot price, this week’s spot price rose from a small discount to a premium of 80-140 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the absolute inventory of 100000 tons is still low in the same period, and on the other hand, it reflects the optimistic expectation of the spot market for the subsequent recovery of consumption. At present, LME inventory is less than 80000 tons, copper price has a strong bottom safety margin, and the price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. Historically, the total accumulated inventory of SHFE copper in China after the Spring Festival is about 110000 tons, lasting for 7-8 weeks. It is necessary to continue to observe the accumulated inventory after the copper Festival.
(2) aluminum: ① in terms of inventory: on Wednesday, the large exchange accumulated 92900 tons to 1198400 tons, of which LME inventory accumulated 64200 tons to 875300 tons in a single week; ② Supply: Guangxi baikuang aluminum industry has reduced its production by 400000 tons due to the epidemic, and the production capacity of Yunnan and Inner Mongolia has not resumed rapidly due to the end of the Spring Festival. According to the statistics of Baichuan, at present, the operating capacity has fallen back to around 38.04 million tons again, and the subsequent resumption rhythm remains to be observed. High overseas electricity prices are still the core factor limiting the start of electrolytic aluminum, and many European aluminum plants have intensively reduced production. At present, enterprises that are still under construction are always at a loss, and the scale of production reduction is still possible to expand if the energy problem is not effectively solved; ③ Demand: according to the research of my nonferrous metals network, most aluminum processing enterprises have full orders and still produce at full capacity during the Spring Festival. At the same time, the start-up of some enterprises in the north after the production restriction caused by the Winter Olympic Games will usher in a rebound. The fields of photovoltaic aluminum, aluminum temsector and 5g infrastructure have a significant effect on aluminum consumption. Since the Spring Festival, the total stock of the cooperative has increased by 220000 tons, which is still lower than that of the cooperative in the first two weeks of 2018 and the only two weeks after the Spring Festival. At the same time, the stock of the cooperative is still 1 million tons, which is lower than that of the cooperative in the first two weeks of 2018. Considering the current tight supply and demand pattern outside China, the current inventory in China is relatively large, and the accumulated inventory is less risky than that in previous years. After the rapid stock removal in the peak season of the second quarter, the supply and demand fundamentals are expected to significantly support the strengthening of aluminum prices, and the follow-up inventory trend is the focus of current aluminum prices. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China nonferrous metals mining, Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Energy metals: the demand for new energy is improving, and the price of cobalt and lithium has broken through again. (1) Lithium: (1) lithium: during the week, electric carbon increased by 15000 yuan / ton to 395400 yuan / ton, and the price broke through the profit space of lower electric carbon. During the week, it increased by 12400 yuan / ton to 192100 yuan / ton. The new energy vehicle market continues to boom, and resource end enterprises are expected to continue to benefit; (2) Nickel: the weekly average price of nickel sulfate increased slightly by 0.6% to 42000 yuan / ton; The price of high nickel iron rose by 5.76% to 1470 yuan / nickel, and the price difference between nickel sulfate and ferronickel fell from 48200 yuan / ton to 41300 yuan / ton. High nickel matte products in Qingshan Park, Indonesia continue to be delivered during the Spring Festival to alleviate the shortage of nickel sulfate raw materials. On the demand side, the wait-and-see mood is strong under the high price of nickel sulfate, and the spot transaction is light; (3) Cobalt: this week, the CIF quotation of cobalt intermediate products rose to US $30.93/lb, and the discount coefficient was the same as 89%; The middle price of MB cobalt was reported at US $34.375/lb, a slight increase. The demand for new energy is improving. In the first week after the festival, the price of electrolytic cobalt broke through 500000 / ton again, and the price of cobalt sulfate followed. After excluding cobalt raw materials, the profit space of cobalt sulfate processing increased to 47800 yuan / ton within the week, and the profit continued to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) .
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
