This week's Chemical Market Overview
The market was sharply divided this week, with cyclical fire and ice growth. Among them, Shenwan chemical rose 3.94%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.12%. In terms of targets, coal chemical industry, TDI, calcium pantothenate and large refining and chemical sectors showed strong performance, and the growth targets were under pressure.
Portfolio recommendation
\u3000\u3000 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) 、 Shenzhen Wote Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002886) 、 Sichuan Em Technology Co.Ltd(601208)
This week's view
The market was sharply divided this week, with cyclical fire and ice growth. Among them, Shenwan chemical rose 3.94%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.12%. In terms of targets, coal chemical industry, TDI, calcium pantothenate and large refining and chemical sectors performed strongly, and the growth targets were under pressure. Many changes have taken place in the market recently. Let's answer your concerns here:
① what are the reasons for the rise of the cyclical sector this week? Our understanding is that in the current market environment, institutions may pay more attention to the present rather than poetry and distance. At present, the most key indicator is certainty and the matching degree between valuation and performance. So where does the signal of certainty come from? We believe that it mainly comes from the change signals of the company and the fundamentals of the industry, such as policy, performance and product price. Taking the coal chemical industry and civil explosion industry with better recent performance as an example, one of the reasons behind the rise is the change of policy.
② the Fed's inflation burst. What do you think of the recently suppressed growth sector? The US Federal Reserve's CPI data may further accelerate the inflation rate hike to 1.5% year-on-year, indicating that the US labor market may increase again. In addition, the recent roadshow found that the market has great differences on inflation. We believe that under the background of the continuous lack of large capital expenditure on traditional global bulk commodities, the duration of high inflation may exceed expectations, that is to say, there are still pressure risks in the growth sector in the short term, but risks and opportunities always coexist. At the same time, some institutions are also struggling with the valuation bottom in the negative feedback market. We believe that it is really difficult to judge in the short term, but the cost performance of the target will be clearer in the longer term dimension.
③ correction of the implementation rhythm of the double carbon policy, where are the investment opportunities? Recent policies have released obvious correction signals, such as the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry issued on February 7. In terms of investment direction, it is suggested to focus on the sectors greatly suppressed by carbon neutralization in the early stage, such as coal chemical industry.
Risk tips
The epidemic affects the demand outside China, the crude oil price fluctuates violently, and the change of trade policy affects the industrial layout.
