Sub industry core week view
New energy: the fundamentals of wind power and photovoltaic continue to be strong, the top-level policy catalysis comes again, and a firm attitude towards the development of new energy is clarified. The previously accumulated overdraft on profit expectation and valuation has been fully digested, and the sector has entered the value investment position building range again. It is suggested to add photovoltaic wind power to multiple main lines (see the text for details).
Hydrogen energy and fuel cell: the catalogue of the first batch of new energy models of the Ministry of industry and information technology in 2022 shows that the number of models on the list has increased, the system is equipped with high power, and the mileage conforms to the characteristics of commercial vehicles; In 2021, the global sales and ownership of fuel cell vehicles continued to grow. Driven by policy support, the sales models were mainly passenger cars and buses; The national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued policies to set the tone for the green transformation of energy, and hydrogen energy plays an important role.
Battery: the price system fluctuates in this round, and the competitive advantage of strong bargaining leader is expected to expand; It is expected that from March, the new production capacity of the midstream head company will be gradually put into operation, and the chain ratio of production scheduling will be greatly improved. The sector has recently retreated to near pe30x in 22 years and entered the strong allocation value range. Focus on the links with strong bargaining power, such as batteries, diaphragms, positive electrodes, structural parts, carbon black, aluminum plastic film and other auxiliary materials with accelerated localization rate, negative electrodes and PVDF with tight balance between supply and demand.
Power equipment and industrial control: since 2021q4, the investment in power grid has accelerated, the prosperity of the sector is high, and the upgrading and innovation of equipment technology is expected to accelerate. The leading companies in the industrial chain and the technical leaders in subdivided links will fully benefit, and are optimistic about energy storage, digitization, distribution network, amorphous transformer, intelligent operation and maintenance, power electronics, flexible DC and other links. In January, PMI remained above the boom and bust line. In 2022, the demand for industrial control was better, and the valuation cost performance of industrial control sector was prominent.
Important industry events this week
New energy: the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation; Auxinsolar submitted an application for double anti circumvention investigation on photovoltaic capacity in Southeast Asia to the U.S. Department of Commerce; In January, the bidding volume of wind turbine reached 10GW, exceeding the expectation.
Hydrogen energy and fuel cell: the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the recommended catalogue of the first batch of new energy vehicles in 2022; The four ministries and commissions jointly issued the implementation guide for the transformation and upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2022 version), and the ten industries upgraded by hydrogen.
Electric vehicle: none.
Power equipment and industrial control: the PMI in January was 50.1.
Recommended portfolio of sub industries
See the text on the next page for details.
Risk tips:
The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; The effect of policy adjustment and implementation is lower than expected; The global epidemic worsened more than expected.
