One week market review
This week, the Shenwan real estate index rose 4%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.82%, and the relative income was 3.18%. The performance of the sector was stronger than the market.
Industry fundamentals
This week (02.4-02.10), we tracked a total of 21562 first-hand houses in 58 key cities, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 70.3% and a month on month growth rate of 27%; The total transaction area was 2.227 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 72% and a month on month growth rate of 11.3%.
This week (02.4-02.10), we tracked a total of 5618 second-hand houses in 16 key cities, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 73.6% and a month-on-month growth rate of 122.6%; The total transaction area was 516000 square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 75.9% and a month on month growth rate of 90.5%.
This week (02.04-02.10), the inventory area of commercial housing in 17 key cities tracked by us was 198151000 square meters, with a month on month growth rate of – 0.1% and a decontamination cycle of 79.1 weeks.
This week (01.31-02.06), 84000 square meters of land was supplied, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 99.9%; The land sold was 37000 square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 99.9%; The land transaction amount was 40 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 100%.
This week (02.04-02.10), real estate enterprises issued a total of 0 billion yuan of credit bonds, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 100% and a month on month growth rate of – 100%. Real estate collective trusts issued a total of 2.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 78.2%, a month on month growth rate of 244.6%, and an average income of 7.66%.
Investment advice
This week, according to CNR news, the opinions on the supervision of national commercial housing pre-sale funds have been issued. When the funds in the supervision account reach the supervision limit, the funds exceeding the limit can be withdrawn and used by real estate enterprises. On February 8, the central bank, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on excluding the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing from the concentration management of real estate loans, which clearly excluded the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing projects from the concentration management of real estate loans, and encouraged financial institutions in the banking industry to follow the principles of compliance according to law, controllable risk and commercial sustainability, Increase support for the development of affordable rental housing. Recently, Fuzhou adjusted the housing provident fund policy, and the loan conditions for the second application for the use of housing provident fund will be relaxed. The loan policy will be adjusted from February 1 this year. If the employee families who purchase houses within the administrative region of Fuzhou apply for pure housing provident fund loans for the second time, the proportion of down payment shall be adjusted to 40%. Chongqing Municipal People’s government has issued the “14th five year plan for financial reform and development in Chongqing (2021-2025)”, which prohibits illegal investment in real estate and supports the development of Housing leasing financial business. Recently, the Chengdu Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development revealed that in 2022, Chengdu plans to supply 20000 talent apartments, raise 60000 affordable rental housing units (rooms), and issue 7000 public rental housing rental subsidies. On February 9, the China Index Institute released data that in January 2022, the total financing of real estate enterprises was 79.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 70.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 16.6%, and the financing scale in a single month decreased for 11 consecutive months year-on-year. The industry average interest rate was 4.13%, down 1.72 percentage points year-on-year and 0.99 percentage points lower than last month. At the end of 2021, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 52.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, 3.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate at the end of the previous year; The balance of real estate development loans was 12.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, 5.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous year. The balance of individual housing loans was 38.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, 3.3 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous year.
At present, the valuation of the real estate sector is at a low level, with strong performance certainty and high dividends. We mainly recommend leading real estate enterprises with strong performance certainty China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Longguang group, Xuhui holding group, country garden, Baolong real estate and Country Garden Service in property management sector, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Xincheng Yue service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) and Nacity Property Service Group Co.Ltd(603506) . Relevant beneficiary objects include Longhu group, China Jinmao, poly property, green city services, etc.
Risk tips
Sales were lower than expected, and the real estate regulation policy was tightened.
