Investment advice
Special topic of this week: channel tracking of food and beverage sector. After the festival, we tracked the dynamic sales situation with the dealers of each sub sector, and the feedback from the overall channel side was positive. We are still optimistic about the good fundamentals in 22 years, and we suggest paying attention to the investment opportunities of the sector in the shock. Sub sector, 1) Baijiu: high-end overall demand is stable, some channel feedback after the gift demand, the box flier sky price rises. There is a strong demand for local liquor, and the feedback from the dynamic sales of Hui liquor and Su liquor is good; Secondary high-end short-term demand is under pressure, and the channel is still optimistic about the subsequent inventory digestion trend. 2) Beer: before the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales are better year-on-year, the high-end trend is still at the right time, the transmission of price increase is benign, and the channel profits are rich. 3) Condiments: excluding the influence of time difference, the dynamic sales of Spring Festival increased year-on-year, the catering channel recovered to about 90% in 19 years, and the sales of Ka channel increased significantly year-on-year.
Baijiu: the recent sector fluctuations are relatively high, and market sentiment has stabilized and picked up after a short period of decline. We believe that the overall fundamentals of the sector are still strong. It is suggested that the layout of high cost performance should be paid attention to in the callback. Combined with the research on channel end, we believe that the Baijiu dynamic sales of this Spring Festival is in line with expectations, and the price is stable and stock is healthy. Although some regions are affected by the disturbance of the epidemic, the wineries timely and flexibly regulate the delivery rhythm, so there is no need to worry too much about the channel inventory or price pressure caused by the demand disturbance in the short term. We are still the first to promote high-end wine labels. Even in the face of external risks such as economic pressure, the demand fluctuation of high-end wine is expected to be small. At the same time, it is suggested that the valuation of regional Baijiu should be paid attention to. The demand for real estate liquor will return to a good trend under the tide of Spring Festival. For the secondary high-end liquor, it is recommended to continuously track the improvement of the demand side.
Beer: the leading data in January was better, mainly due to the advance of the Spring Festival + the expectation of price increase. The sample supermarkets of grass-roots research also stimulated the demand for home beverage storage through promotion, the shipment volume of tinned wine surged, and the ton price was significantly increased by structural optimization. 1) Looking ahead to Q1, we judge that the sales volume may be under pressure in February due to the national cold weather and the pre Spring Festival. However, the marginal impact of the epidemic is weakened. Beer has strong correlation with catering, and is expected to deduce the logic of volume increase in peak season (Q2 base is relatively normal, Q3 base is low). According to channel feedback, the leading sales caliber planning has made steady progress, and the high-end goal is expected to be better than expected. 2) At present, the market has doubts about the cost investment in 22 years. We believe that the cost-effectiveness ratio of Tsing beer is enhanced, Wu Jing, the spokesman of wusuxin heavy beer, is highly consistent with the brand tone, and the leading profit margin is still in the upward range. Throughout the year, beer is still a sub sector with opportunities for improvement in volume, price and cost. It is optimistic about the configuration value of the leader and pays attention to the repair of peak season demand caused by epidemic passivation, price increase + structural upgrading driving price increase, and quarterly verification of ton cost changes.
Condiments: according to the feedback of Spring Festival stock preparation, with the recovery of terminal demand, the rhythm of stock preparation and shipment of various brands is smooth, and the inventory of Spring Festival is generally increased by 1-1.5 months, but it is still within a reasonable range. The shipment volume is in line with the expected value, and the dynamic sales ratio is basically flat. As the price increases of various brands are transmitted to the wholesaler level, the terminal retail price is expected to be finally adjusted in the first quarter. On the whole, it is recommended to pay attention to the improvement of long-term fundamentals of investment targets and weaken short-term performance requirements. For traditional condiments, it is suggested to focus on price increase and dynamic marketing, while for compound condiments, it is suggested to focus on the rhythm of new product launch and changes in competition pattern.
Dairy products: according to the grassroots research of the Spring Festival, the terminal prices of Mengniu Xiaobai milk and Yilian Mushi are slightly higher than before. Most of the large single products are within 2 months. The distribution of Miaoke normal temperature cheese sticks is relatively strong. Miaoke normal temperature cheese sticks are sold in 4 of the 6 cities visited. On the whole, the dynamic sales of liquid milk in January is good. It is expected that the demand for dairy products will remain stable in 22 years, and the trend of profit margin improvement is still clear.
Snack food: Recently, Qiaqia's business is stable, and the profit side is flexible after the price increase; The new products of Ganyuan Pingxiang factory are expected to be on the market by the end of February; Jue Wei's price increase pilot is relatively smooth. It has basically begun to increase prices nationwide, ranging from 5% to 20%. Franchisees in offline cities are more willing to open stores. We suggest that we continue to pay attention to the marginal improvement of some stressed companies.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk / repeated epidemic risk / regional market competition risk
