In January, the year-on-year growth rate of social finance continued to rise, new social finance and credit in a single month hit a record high, and corporate bonds in a single month hit a record high in the same period. Structurally, the proportion of bills has decreased significantly, corporate loans and medium and long-term loans of enterprises have reached a record high in a single month, and residents’ medium and long-term investment is also positive. The “volume” of financial data reached a new high and the “structure” improved, which verified the power of wide credit and showed the determination to stabilize growth.
In the following spring festival financing off-season in February, there may be concerns that the early release of reserves may lead to insufficient follow-up credit demand, which is similar to the concerns in January. The management continues to show that the steady growth and real estate policies have confidence and determination, and there is room and tools to make efforts. The policies will continue to make efforts until the economic and real estate data and expectations improve.
Reiterate the view that steady growth continues to catalyze and firmly optimistic about the bank market. Fully optimistic about the industry, individual stocks recommend high-quality regional banks: such as Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , etc.; continuous recommendation of core targets: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , focusing on the value of undervalued targets.
Credit increased to a single month high, and the steady growth force was better than expected.
In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion, an increase of 394.4 billion year-on-year on the basis of last year’s high base. The central bank directly pointed out that it was a monthly statistical high. Enterprise loans reached a record high, and the medium, long-term and short-term of enterprises also reached a record high in a single month. Enterprises increased by 2.1 trillion in the medium and long term, 101 million in the short term, an increase of 60 billion and 434.5 billion year-on-year. Steady growth has made significant efforts in infrastructure, manufacturing investment and small and medium-sized enterprises. The proportion of new bills decreased significantly, from 36% in December 2021 to 4%. Residents increased by 742.4 billion in the medium and long term, with a year-on-year decrease of 202.4 billion, which is better than expected and the sales of top 100 real estate enterprises, reflecting the positive investment of bank mortgage under the guidance of steady growth policy.
Credit and bonds developed together, and the growth rate of social finance continued to stabilize and rebound
In January, the growth rate of social finance was 10.5% year-on-year, continuing the stabilization trend, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with December 2021. In January, social finance increased by 6.17 trillion, an increase of 984.2 billion year-on-year. The main reasons for the continued stabilization of the growth rate of social finance are as follows: first, under the high base number of credit, it increased year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point compared with the previous month, supporting social finance. Second, corporate bonds increased by 579.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 188.2 billion, a record high in the same period. In the past three months, corporate bonds have been actively issued, and the market’s willingness to allocate credit bonds has increased. Third, the volume of local bonds increased by 6026 trillion, an increase of 358.9 billion year-on-year, which was misplaced with the issuance rhythm of last year, and the increase was significantly better than that of the same period last year. Fourth, the pressure of off balance sheet supervision slowed down in January, and trust loans decreased by 68 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2 billion; Entrusted loans increased by 42.8 billion, an increase of 33.7 billion year-on-year; Steady growth was implemented, Bill impulse eased, and undiscounted bills increased by 473.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1 billion.
The year-on-year increase in deposits stems from the dislocation of the Spring Festival and the continuation of financial investment
In January, RMB deposits increased by 3.83 trillion, an increase of 2627 trillion year-on-year. Except for residents’ deposits, others increased less year-on-year. In January, fiscal deposits increased by 584.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 585.1 billion, and fiscal investment continued to maintain a large intensity. Household deposits increased by 5.41 trillion, an increase of 3.93 trillion year-on-year, and enterprise deposits decreased by 1.40 trillion, an increase of 2.35 trillion year-on-year, or mainly related to the dislocation of the Spring Festival. Non bank deposits decreased by 183.6 billion, an increase of 71.6 billion year-on-year. Deposits of other major organs and groups are expected to decrease by 581.3 billion, an increase of 664.9 billion year-on-year. In January, M1 increased by 2% year-on-year (excluding the dislocation of the Spring Festival), down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.
Risk warning: large-scale outbreak of real estate default risk; The economy fell sharply, exceeding expectations.
