Events
According to the industry statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 26 main engine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics in January 2022 sold 156.07 million sets of excavators. Among them, 8282 units are sold in the Chinese market and 7325 units are exported.
Key investment points
In January 2022, the sales volume of excavator decreased by 20%; Among them, exports accounted for 47%, with a year-on-year increase of 105%, which was higher than expected. In January 2022, the sales volume of excavators was 15607, with a year-on-year decrease of 20%, and the decline was narrower than that in the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, 8282 units were sold in China, a year-on-year decrease of 48%, still maintaining a large decline; 7325 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 105%, and the monthly average sales volume in the fourth quarter increased by 3%, exceeding expectations; In January, exports accounted for 47% of the sales volume of that month, with a year-on-year increase of 27pct, and the contribution of exports to the sales volume of excavators in China is increasing rapidly. It is estimated that the sales volume of excavators will be 309000 units in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. Among them, China sold 206000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, and exported 103000 units, a year-on-year increase of 50%.
In January 2022, the sales volume of small excavation increased by 7.1pct, the proportion of medium excavation decreased by 5.2pct, and the proportion of large excavation decreased by 1.9pct. In January 2022, the sales volume of small excavation in the Chinese market was 5380 units, a year-on-year decrease of 42%, the sales volume accounted for 65%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.1pct; The sales volume of China mining was 1879 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 58%, accounting for 23% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.2pct; The sales volume of large-scale excavation was 1023 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 55%, accounting for 12% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.9pct. In January 2022, China's small excavation market recovered relatively well, and the recovery of medium and large excavation market related to infrastructure, real estate and mining industry was relatively slow.
In January, the financial data achieved a good start, exceeding market expectations. Under the expectation of steady growth, the marginal demand expectation improved. In January, the financial data achieved a good start, with a year-on-year increase of 11% in New RMB loans and a year-on-year increase of 10.5% in the stock of social finance scale, both exceeding market expectations. With the resumption of work after the Spring Festival and the commencement of major projects, the expected marginal improvement of construction machinery. With the weakening of the base effect, the commencement of major projects will boost procurement confidence, and the decline of construction machinery represented by excavators will be narrowed in the second quarter.
The export of excavators in January hit a new high in a single month. If the export increases by 50% this year, it can hedge China's 10% - 22% decline. The export of 7325 excavators in January increased by 105% year-on-year. The export sales volume of excavators has reached 56% CAGR in the past five years. In 2021, the annual export volume reached 68000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 97%, showing an accelerating trend. If the relatively pessimistic assumption is adopted for the growth of excavator sales in 2022, if the excavator export can maintain a 50% growth, it can hedge the decline of 10% - 25% of China's excavator sales.
Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) and other companies are expected to move from Chinese leader to global leader by virtue of internationalization, digitization and electrification. Construction machinery is China's current advantageous industry. Chinese companies can rely on economies of scale, industrial chain advantages and operation efficiency advantages to achieve a global leading position. After completing China's import substitution, industry leaders such as Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) will gain a considerable market share in the world by virtue of internationalization, digitization and electrification, and move from Chinese leader to global leader.
Investment advice
Construction machinery continues to focus on the leader of strong alpha attribute. Recommended Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co.Ltd(603338) , Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) ; Continue to be optimistic about Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) , Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) , Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , China Railway Hi-Tech Industry Corporation Limited(600528) .
Risk tips
Infrastructure and real estate investment are less than expected; The export growth rate of excavator was lower than expected.
