Price: steel price differentiation this week. This week, the price of 20mm HRB400 thread is 4940 yuan / ton, which is + 4.4% compared with the week before the Spring Festival (the same below). The price of hot rolling 3.0mm is 5160 yuan / ton, which is + 4.0% compared with the week before the Spring Festival. Raw material price differentiation this week. The price of iron ore at the port this week rose compared with that before the Spring Festival; Coke prices fell compared with those before the Spring Festival; The price of scrap steel is higher than that before the Spring Festival.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell this week. In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is + 112 yuan / ton, + 124 yuan / ton and + 116 yuan / ton respectively compared with that before the Spring Festival. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel rebounded this week compared with that before the Spring Festival.
Output and inventory: this week, the output of deformed steel bars declined on a weekly basis, while that of the five major steel mills and social warehouses increased on a weekly basis. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.7 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 240300 tons, of which the output of construction steel decreased by 101700 tons, the output of sector decreased by 138600 tons, and the output of rebar decreased by 116200 tons to 2439800 tons this week. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week were 2.4388 million tons and 1 million tons respectively, and the cycle to cycle ratio was – 111200 tons and – 5000 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties increased by 1473700 tons to 15353100 tons on a week-on-week basis, the total inventory of steel mills increased by 6.5254 million tons on a week-on-week basis, including 835900 tons of rebar social warehouse and 62100 tons of factory warehouse.
The three departments issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of iron and steel industry. The Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of ecological environment issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry. The opinion points out that it is strictly prohibited to increase steel production capacity. We will resolutely curb the blind construction of steel smelting projects, strictly implement the laws, regulations and policies on capacity replacement, project filing, environmental impact assessment, pollutant discharge permit and energy assessment, and shall not increase steel production capacity in the name of machining, casting and ferroalloy.
Investment suggestion: in January, the social financing increased by 6.17 trillion, a record high. With the recognition of wide credit, the expectation of steady growth is gradually strengthened. The resumption of work and production of downstream related projects is earlier than the same period of the lunar calendar last year, and the steel consumption may be started in advance. On the supply side, the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry once again reiterated the restriction of iron and steel production capacity. During the “Winter Olympics”, the production restriction in the North continued, and the release of steel output was limited. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of steel and the inventory level of steel mills before the Spring Festival are far lower than that in the same period of last year’s lunar calendar, and the steel storage volume in the first week after the festival is lower than that in the same period of previous lunar calendar. On the whole, after the festival, steel consumption is started in advance, the focus of steel price is shifted upward, and the profits of steel mills are expected to continue to recover. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
