Core view
Urban macro: Huzhou is located in the central area of the Yangtze River Delta, with superior location, strong economic strength and strong sense of wealth and happiness of residents. Huzhou is one of the 11 prefecture level cities under the jurisdiction of Zhejiang, with 3 districts and 3 counties, a total area of 5818 square kilometers and a population of 2.64 million. Huzhou is located on the South Bank of Taihu Lake and the intersection of Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces. The one hour economic circle covers Suzhou, Hangzhou, Huning and other cities. In the year of 21, Huzhou gdp3644 900 million yuan, an increase of 9.5% at the same time, ranking the second in the province. Qipu has a permanent resident population of 3.368 million, accounting for 5.2% of the province’s population, ranking eighth. Judging from the resident population of the city in recent 10 years, it shows a net inflow as a whole. The per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents achieved double-digit growth, of which the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 68000 yuan, an increase of 10.1%, ranking the second in the province. The ratio of house price to income is 6.8, which is far lower than that of surrounding cities.
Real estate market: the transaction of new houses has been high and low in 21 years, and has been relatively stable since the beginning of 22 years. In the 21 years, the number of contracted units in the central urban area of Huzhou was 33000, with a contracted area of 3.928 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%. The monthly signing volume reached its peak in the first month of 21 years. The market was temporarily closed during the Spring Festival in February and reached the second peak in March. Under the control of subsequent policies such as “purchase restriction” and “sales restriction”, the market heat began to decline, showing a downward trend in steps in the third and fourth quarters. Since the beginning of 2022, the transaction of new houses has been relatively stable. From 18 to 21, the number of second-hand housing contracts increased steadily, the market was stable and good, and has remained stable since the beginning of 22. The number of contracted units in Huzhou central city was 16000, an increase of 10.1% and the contracted area was 1.989 million square meters, an increase of 16.3%. According to the monthly signing data, March is the peak. The backlog of house purchase demand affected by the epidemic was released rapidly at the beginning of the year with the overall recovery of the real estate market, which contributed to the “gold, silver and four” of the second-hand housing market. After July, the market gradually returned to stable development.
New house prices remained high at the beginning of 21 years, and slowly recovered after falling in May of 21 years. At present, they maintain a relatively stable position (12886 yuan / square meter). According to the survey, we summarized three reasons: 1) Huzhou has a small population, ranking 8th in Zhejiang Province; 2) Backed by Hangzhou and connected to economically developed cities such as Suzhou and Jiaxing, rich local residents will choose to buy houses in cities with more developed economy, education and medical treatment; 3) The local government has made great efforts to strictly implement the policies of “no speculation in housing”, “price limit” and “purchase restriction”. The overall price of second-hand housing has maintained a stable climb.
Home buyers are mainly self occupied and small and medium-sized households, and local buyers aged 30-45 are the absolute main force. Huzhou real estate developers are mainly foreign real estate enterprises, while local real estate enterprises are small in scale. Foreign real estate enterprises mainly include Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , everybody real estate, country garden, Greentown group, Poly Group, Evergrande, Zhuoyue real estate, rongchuang real estate, blue city group, Jincheng Group, etc. at present, the real estate developed by Greentown and Jincheng has the highest selling price.
Policy: the policy of “purchase restriction”, “sale restriction” and “loan restriction” in 21 years is tightened first and then relaxed. 1) restriction: 1 sets of registered residence restrictions (21 years before March). 2) Restriction on sale: the newly purchased house can be transferred after 2 years of obtaining the real estate ownership certificate (no restriction on sale before May 2021); 3) Loan restriction: in 2021, the down payment ratio of housing loans has not been adjusted. The down payment ratio of the first house is 30% (20% for new houses with a purchase area of less than 144 square meters), and the down payment ratio of the second house is 40%; Three suites paid in full. In terms of interest rate, Huzhou City has adjusted the mortgage interest rate of various banks for many times in the past 21 years. The interest rate of state-owned banks was LPR + 65-70bp before March. Since May, the interest rate has increased by 70-80bp on the original basis. The interest rate of the first house in the market has increased from 5.5% to 6.6%. Until October, the mortgage interest rate began to loosen, the bank has reduced by 50-60bp, and the interest rate of the first house in the market has decreased to a minimum of 5.5%. In January 22, the loan interest rate was further lowered, and the loan scale of banks in various countries was also relaxed. After the credit policy was relaxed in October, the property market transaction did not improve significantly; In January 2022, the credit relaxation increased, and the new house transaction did not improve, but the second-hand house transaction warmed up. In the second and third weeks of January, the contracted area of second-hand houses increased by 25.5% and 2.1% respectively year-on-year. 4) Price limit: the land price shall be limited from March 15, 2001, and the premium rate of all plots shall not exceed 15%; At the same time, encourage the establishment and improvement of the linkage mechanism between house prices and land prices, and some plots also have limited house prices (unlimited price policy before March 2021); 5) Limited signing: online signing in an orderly manner.
Land market: in 2021, the land auction was concentrated in the first and third quarters, and the unsold stock land was concentrated in the South Taihu new area. In 2021, there were 38 transfers of residential land in Huzhou central city, with a transaction amount of more than 23.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.9%, a land area of 2.254 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, and the highest floor price of 1.3W. 1) Land prices rose significantly. In 2021, the number of transactions in the residential land market was higher than last year, and the transfer area was smaller than last year, but the transaction amount was significantly higher than last year, indicating that the land price in Huzhou increased significantly in 2021. 2) The supply of South Taihu new area increased, and the average floor price and premium in Wuxing district were the highest. In 2021, there were 15 residential land in South Taihu new area, with a transfer area of 1025000 square meters, accounting for 45.3% of the total transfer area. The average floor price in Wuxing district is the highest, reaching 8209.6 yuan / square meter. Wuxing district is located in the city center. Among them, the average floor price in the East and west areas of the lake is as high as 11557.3 yuan / square, and the average premium rate of the eastern new town is as high as 97.1%. As of December 31, 2021, the existing residential land and unsold area in South Taihu new area still occupy the first place, reaching 6.861 million square meters and 1.369 million square meters respectively, accounting for 49.6% and 53.6%.
Project research: we take one building in Nanxun District, the central city of Huzhou, and one building in Changxing County under its jurisdiction. 1) Nanxun Chengtong · Nanlin Chunxiao (Chunjing garden): located in Nanxun District, it is an emerging city in Shanghai and Hangzhou metropolitan area, and takes the lead in integrating into Shanghai’s “half-hour life circle”. Surrounded by three major city landmarks and seven universities. Built by Huzhou Hongcheng real estate, the average sales price is 14000 yuan / Ping. It was first opened in August 21. At present, it has been fully opened, with a total of 427 houses, and the overall de conversion rate is 51%. The property management company is a riverside property in Hangzhou. The property fee is 2.5 yuan / flat / month for foreign houses and 4.5 yuan / flat / month for the courtyard, which is a high local level. The actual floor price is 5805 yuan / square meter, and the blank is delivered. If the construction and installation cost is about 3000 yuan / square meter, we expect the gross profit margin to be 37%. 2) Lanyuan: built by blue city group and Changxing local state-owned enterprise urban investment. It was opened for the first time in April 21, followed by four additional promotions. A total of 1081 houses were launched, with an average price of 12900 yuan / square meter. The first three batches are all 100%, and the current overall removal rate is 94.9%; The property company is Chengdu zhuowangjia property, and the property fee is 2.2 yuan / month / square meter for high-rise buildings and 2.4 yuan / month / square meter for stacked villas. The average floor price of the project is 4000 yuan / square meter, and the blank is delivered. If the construction and installation cost is 3000 yuan / square meter, the average house price is 12900 yuan / square meter, and we expect the static gross profit margin to be 45.7%.
