Sub industry core week view
Vehicle: the sales volume in China in January was not weak in the off-season, and the overseas market as a whole met expectations. China: Recently, the market is worried about the decline of subsidies, the rise of upstream prices and other factors affecting terminal sales, and January is a traditional off-season. According to the January sales volume announced by some main engine manufacturers during the Spring Festival holiday, Byd Company Limited(002594) and Weilai are basically the same month on month. It is expected that China will sell about 380000 in batches in January, which is not light in the overall off-season; Overseas: the sales volume in Europe is expected to be about 110000, yoy + 14%, which is basically in line with market expectations. The sales volume in the United States in January was 54000, with a slight decline month on month, exceeding expectations. According to our grassroots research, the sales volume planning goal of the head main engine factory in 22 years is ambitious, and the increment of terminal sales may further focus on the head, focusing on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain.
Parts: focus on the supply chain of Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other leading car companies incrementally, and focus on the track with large marginal increase in penetration and localization rate. We expect that the volume elasticity of the whole vehicle link in 22 years will focus on the head, focusing on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain; Intellectualization is an important starting point for OEMs to create product differentiation. From the beginning of 22 years, the penetration rate of intelligent sub circuits is expected to accelerate. The focus is on the direction with large marginal changes in permeability and localization rate. 1) Direction of penetration improvement: intelligent chassis (air suspension, brake by wire, CDC shock absorption, etc.), thermal management heat pump, integrated casting, HEPA and other fields; 2) The promotion direction of localization rate: controller, micro motor, audio, tire, IGBT and other fields.
Battery: the price system fluctuates in this round, and the competitive advantage of strong bargaining leader is expected to expand. Recently Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) released the performance forecast of the annual report. The performance of 4q21 significantly exceeded the market expectation. We continue to pay attention to the strong bargaining leader. We believe that the relative advantage of the cost of the strong bargaining leader will be expanded due to the fluctuation of the price system this round; We believe that 4q21 is the node where the performance of the midstream begins to be realized, and 1q22 upstream lithium and other resource products will begin to gradually realize the performance, focusing on the changes in profit distribution caused by the price transmission of the industrial chain. According to the recent grassroots research results, compared with December 21, the industrial production scheduling in January 22 continued to increase by about 5% month on month, and the off-season is not light. It is expected that the new production capacity of the midstream head company will be put into operation gradually from March, and the production scheduling will increase significantly month on month. We judge that the capacity constraint of high energy consumption is still strong; The sector has recently retreated to near pe30x in 22 years and entered the strong allocation value range. Focus on the links with strong bargaining power, such as batteries, diaphragms, positive electrodes, structural parts, carbon black, aluminum plastic film and other auxiliary materials with accelerated localization rate, negative electrodes and PVDF with tight balance between supply and demand.
Important industry events this week
Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) comments: another order for air supply unit assembly of air suspension system of a new force new project of head car manufacturing in China. Recommended portfolio of sub industries
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Risk tips:
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; Industry chain competition is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
