PV module manufacturers have a good attitude towards goods preparation, and continue to pay attention to the production capacity launch progress
Last week, the prices of 2mm and 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass were 19.2 and 25 yuan / m2 respectively, unchanged month on month. Manufacturers' inventory days were 23.92 days, up 12.16% from the week before the festival. Recently, the price of raw materials has increased, the operating load of component end has decreased slightly compared with that before the festival, and glass manufacturers have executed more orders before the festival, and the delivery and investment is OK. In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls in the future and driven by policies, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve in 22 / 23 years. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 41210 tons, which was flat month on month. The production plan of photovoltaic glass in 22 years was relatively large, and part of the promotion was general. Under the current price, we believe that the production capacity in 22 years still needs to be observed. Generally speaking, we believe that the average profit of the whole industry is currently or still at the bottom range, and some small kilns are unprofitable under the current price level. We judge that the downward space of price is limited. If the demand accelerates to improve in the future, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise periodically, and we continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous rise in volume and price of leading companies in the future.
The price of float glass is expected to reach the peak after Q2
Last week, the average price of float glass in China rose 3.42% month on month compared with the week before the festival. The processing plants and traders had good enthusiasm for goods preparation, and the production and sales volume of float factories was large. Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 43.42 million weight boxes, an increase of 8.32 million weight boxes compared with the week before the festival. The production capacity during the week was 174375t / D, a decrease of 600t / D month on month. Last week, the price rise of soda ash at the cost side was limited, the price of the original film increased significantly, and the profit of float glass continued to rise. We believe that if the margin of real estate funds improves in the future, the demand side of float glass is still expected to rebound in the short term, and it is expected to usher in a small peak of completion in the first half of this year.
Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
The demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the capacity side has high growth. It is recommended to [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (jointly cover with Dianxin), [Xinyi solar energy] (jointly cover with Dianxin), and the dilemma reversal angle is recommended [ Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) ]. The price and profit of float glass are still going down in the short term, but the share price of float glass leader has been greatly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of its float business in equilibrium and the additional growth brought by new businesses such as photovoltaic, we believe that the current float glass leader has good medium and long-term investment value, and continue to recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [Xinyi Glass], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ]; From the perspective of new glass materials, UTG original film breaks through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. Continue to recommend [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (joint coverage with the electronic group). Under the domestic substitution logic of medicinal glass, it is recommended to recommend the head enterprise of China borosilicate medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (joint coverage with the medical group).
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed the downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and other products beyond expectations; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
