Investment strategy: the amplitude of steel price and iron ore price increased this week. On the surface, it is the frequent statement of the national development and Reform Commission to curb iron ore speculation, which has hit the market sentiment, but in fact, most industrial products other than steel and iron ore also experienced shock correction. We believe that the price adjustment is essentially because the price of industrial products has rebounded greatly since November last year, and there is a demand for short-term rest. However, at present, it is uncertain whether this round of rebound will come to an end. This round of rebound was triggered by the overshoot recovery of the inventory cycle of the industrial chain and the repair of real demand in the early stage. After entering the off-season in January and February, the continued rise of prices was driven by the expectation of steady growth. At present, the demand of the iron and steel industry is still in the off-season, and the high-frequency data can not reflect the demand. The effect of steady growth can not be verified until mid March. Therefore, the steady growth expectation can not be verified before mid March, and the commodity market is still likely to continue trading the logic of steady growth. Another noteworthy factor is that the standardization of Finance and taxation in the scrap industry chain may lead to the rise of scrap cost and the contraction of scrap supply. This impact may be clearly reflected from February to March, which is a supporting factor for the short-term black price. From a longer time perspective, we believe that this round of price rebound since November belongs to the phased repair in the large downward demand cycle. After the steady growth pulse, we must be careful about the second half of the downward demand cycle, and the time node of demand turn may be in spring. Short term steady growth transactions can focus on Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) , and growth-oriented new materials can focus on Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) .
One week market review: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.82%, and the Shenwan steel sector fell 6.95%. This week, the main contract of rebar closed at 4905 yuan / ton, an increase of 76 yuan / ton over that before the Spring Festival, with a range of 1.57%; the main contract of hot rolled coil closed at 5033 yuan / ton, an increase of 88 yuan / ton over that before the Spring Festival, with a range of 1.78%; The main iron ore contract closed at 805 yuan / ton, a decrease of 24 yuan / ton or 2.9% compared with that before the Spring Festival.
Social inventory is lower than the same period in previous years: the national construction steel trading volume has not been updated this week. The social inventory of the five varieties was 15.353 million tons, an increase of 1.456 million tons month on month. After the festival, the accumulation of social reserves slowed down, lower than the same period in previous years, mainly due to the cautious winter storage before the festival and the limited production in some areas of the current Winter Olympics. Affected by the favorable macro news this week, the resumption of work at the construction site after the festival is better than last year and the production restriction of the Winter Olympics, the market sentiment is more positive.
During the Winter Olympics, the blast furnace production restriction was tightened: this week, the blast furnace operating rates of 247 Mysteel steel enterprises and Tangshan Steel Plant were 68.19% and 34.13% respectively, with a month on month comparison of -6.67pct and -16.66pct before the Spring Festival; This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rates of 247 Mysteel steel enterprises and Tangshan Steel Plant were 76.57% and 57.25% respectively, with a month on month comparison of -4.94 PCT and -16.96 PCT before the Spring Festival. The operating rate of 71 home appliance arc furnaces this week was 2.64%, with a month on month ratio of -7.41pct before the festival; The capacity utilization rate was 3.57%, with a month on month ratio of -9.21pct before the holiday. In terms of hot metal production, the impact of blast furnace production restriction in North China on hot metal production this week is about 130000 tons. In terms of steel output, the total volume continues to decline, and the impact of production restriction on deformed steel bars and hot coils is more significant.
The steel price increased significantly: the myspic comprehensive steel price index increased by 3.94% month on month compared with that before the Spring Festival, including 4.17% for long materials and 3.66% for sectors. Shanghai rebar 4940 yuan / ton, an increase of 210 yuan on a weekly basis, an increase of 4.44%. Shanghai hot rolled coil was 5130 yuan / ton, an increase of 290 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival, with a range of 3.85%. At present, the market has more positive expectations for the future, and the off-season can not be falsified, and the steel price has made a good start after the festival. In the future, we need to pay attention to the real degree of demand driven by the steady growth policy after the switch between the low and peak seasons.
The ore price rose slightly, and the delivery volume was at a low level: platts62%153.75 US dollars / ton this week, with a weekly increase of 5.85 US dollars / ton. Last week, the shipment volume of Australia and Brazil was 1892.8 tons, a month on month decrease of 306000 tons, and the arrival volume was 9.288 million tons, a month on month decrease of 2.935 million tons. The latest steel mill imported ore inventory days are 39 days, an increase of 5 days compared with the last time. Tianjin Zhunyi metallurgical coke was 2810 yuan / ton, a decrease of 400 yuan / ton compared with last week. Scrap steel is 3250 yuan / ton, an increase of 80 yuan / ton compared with last week. The guidance was officially implemented this week, and the carbon peak target of the iron and steel industry was delayed, which was emotionally conducive to the upstream of iron and steel. At the same time, the national development and Reform Commission was still paying close attention to the market operation and price trend, cracking down on speculative demand, and paying close attention to the game of steady growth transactions and policies in the short term.? The profit of the mainstream steel market rebounded slightly this week. According to our simulated steel data, the rise of raw material end ore price and the decline of coke price offset each other during the week, and the billet cost changed little. The weekly average price of finished timber increased significantly. The profit level per ton of steel rebounded, of which the gross profit of hot-rolled coil (3mm) increased by 112 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin increased to 7.78%; The gross profit of cold rolled sheet (1.0mm) increased by 103 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin increased to 2.42%; The gross profit of deformed steel bar (20mm) increased by 99 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin increased to 7.3%; The gross profit of medium and heavy sector (20mm) increased by 119 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin increased to 4.57%.
Risk tip: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase
