Outlook for the total amount of monetary policy: the total amount of credit increased steadily. New loans for the whole year of 22 are expected to be about 20.6 trillion, an increase of 660 billion over last year. 1. The total level is not weak, and there is differentiation among regions. Under the goal of steady growth, the new scale of national banks is expected to be the same as that of the same period last year. Urban rural commercial banks in the eastern region with better economy said that as the overall financing demand is still good, the new scale is expected to be higher than last year. 2. The delivery rhythm will be more advanced. The goal of steady growth is to support the economy in the first quarter, especially in January. In addition, the bank expects that the interest rate center of follow-up loans will continue to move downward, and there is a tendency to put in early and lock in income in advance. 3. In terms of project reserves, banks generally reflect that the project reserves for the public end this year will not be less than 21 years. The public end will focus on infrastructure, green finance and high-end manufacturing this year. There is differentiation at the retail end, large banks have sufficient mortgage reserves, and small and medium-sized banks are lower than that in the same period last year.
Outlook for monetary policy structure: structural monetary policy tools continue to work. 1. Inclusive small and micro loan support tools: it is estimated that the scale of inclusive small and micro loan support tools provided by the central bank will be about 28.7 billion in 2022, and the annual increment of inclusive small and micro loans of local corporate banks will be 2.87 trillion. The 22-year capital cost of local legal person banks is expected to save 94.55 million yuan; The mitigation of bank capital cost is relatively small. The situation of listed banks is consistent with the industry as a whole, and the capital cost saving is only 0.01bp. 2. Pratt Whitney small and micro enterprise credit loan support plan: 400 billion refinancing line, which is expected to support 400 billion-1 trillion credit loans. 3. Carbon emission reduction support tools: it is estimated that the distribution scale of central bank support tools will reach 364.1 billion in 22 years; The new scale of green credit is expected to reach 4.77 trillion.
Monetary policy price outlook: stabilize the cost of bank liabilities and guide the decline of enterprise loan interest rate. Price based monetary policy: the possibility of unilateral interest rate reduction is low. Regulation is more likely to reduce the cost of bank liabilities by limiting the amount of high interest rate deposits, reducing the reserve requirement or maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. Then it will be transmitted to the reduction of bank asset side pricing to reduce the cost of entity financing. At present, the net interest margin of banks has been at a historically low level. The ROA of many unlisted banks is less than 0.6%, and the pressure of capital replenishment is very great. Then the unilateral profit transfer by banks will affect the strength of bank credit.
Interest rates and month on month changes of newly issued loans in December 2021: except the mortgage interest rate, the interest rates of other newly issued loans decreased month on month, the enterprise loan interest rate decreased slightly at a low level, and the bill interest rate decreased significantly. The interest rates of newly issued total loans, general loans (excluding bills and mortgages), corporate loans, bills and mortgages were 4.76%, 5.19%, 4.57%, 2.18% and 5.63% respectively, with month on month changes of – 24bp, – 11bp, – 2bp, – 47bp and + 9bp.
Corporate loan interest rate decreased slightly by 2bp month on month: the pricing of newly issued corporate loans is expected to decline. 1. Structure dimension: structure is a positive contribution factor. In December, the proportion of long-term enterprise loans rose further in September. 2. Pricing dimension: due to the correct structure and contribution to the, it can be judged that the pricing of newly issued enterprise loans has moved down.
The interest rate of general loans (excluding mortgages and bills) decreased by 11bp month on month: the decline in the proportion of retail credit dragged down. 1. Pricing dimension: the corporate loan interest rate decreased by 2bp month on month, which dragged down the decline of general loan interest rate. Retail credit pricing is expected to be generally stable. 2. Structural dimension: the decline in the proportion of retail credit was the main drag (corporate loan interest rate decreased by 2bp month on month, and general loan interest rate decreased by 11bp month on month). In December, the proportion of newly added short-term loans for residents decreased significantly by 20 percentage points compared with that in September. With the decline in the proportion of relatively high-yield retail credit, there is a certain drag on the comprehensive rate of return of the newly issued loan interest rate (the general loan caliber includes enterprise loans and residents’ short-term loans).
The total loan interest rate decreased by 24bp month on month: the decline was greater than 2bp of enterprise loans and 11bp of general loans, which was mainly dragged down by the sharp decline of bill interest rate. The interest rate of notes decreased by 47 BP month on month, mainly due to the fact that the bank offset the credit line task under the background of weak physical demand, and the scale of notes increased significantly. The interest rate of notes was close to zero in December. According to social finance data, new bills accounted for 40% in December, nearly 33 percentage points higher than that in September. In addition, the mortgage interest rate increased by 9bp month on month compared with September, which is expected to be mainly due to the high mortgage interest rate base from October to November. Even if the marginal mortgage interest rate decreased in December, it is still higher than that in September.
Suggestions on sector investment: the safety margin of the sector is relatively high at present, and the asset quality constructs the safety margin of bank stocks. 1. The core investment logic of bank stocks is macroeconomic. For details, see our relevant in-depth report “how do bank stocks perform when prices rise? – summary and comparison of multiple rounds of performance of bank stocks in China and the United States”. We expect that the asset quality of listed banks will be stable in the next few years, which will build the safety margin of bank shares. 2. Banks have two main lines of stock selection. One is to choose banks that are undervalued, have safe asset quality and are expected to succeed in transformation. They are optimistic about Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) . The other is our long-term proposal to continue to embrace the core assets of banks: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) . Their performance is highly sustainable and scarce. The boom of high-quality banks is certain and long-term.
Risk warning event: the economic downturn exceeded expectations.
