Zhou viewpoint: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric vehicles, reshaping the industrial order and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. The new energy delivery volume of new forces and traditional car enterprises increased year-on-year, and the product power continued to pry demand. Tesla released the 2021q4 financial report, and the profit reached a new high. The gross profit margin of Q4 automobile business reached 30.6%, the highest among mass production automobile enterprises. Driven by product power, we believe that the profitability of electric vehicles is significantly higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, and we continue to be optimistic about electric intelligence. Core portfolio of this month [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) ].
Passenger cars: major main engine manufacturers successively disclosed the production and marketing express in January, the wholesale was better than expected, and the growth rate of new energy of traditional car enterprises was bright. Byd Company Limited(002594) in January, 95422 vehicles were wholesale, with a year-on-year increase of + 125.0% and a month on month increase of - 3.7%; GAC wholesale 237232 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.16% and a month on month increase of + 1.5%; Geely wholesale (including Lingke) 146380 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of - 6.6% and a month on month increase of - 7.8%; SAIC wholesale 456000 vehicles in January, up + 13.0% year on year and - 31.1% month on month. At present, the announced wholesale of car enterprises in January is in line with expectations, among which the growth rate of new energy models is more bright. We judge that the growth rate of passenger car sales this year is expected to exceed 5%, new energy is the core increment, and the terminal demand is still considerable; Medium and short-term passenger car manufacturers ushered in additional storage under the improvement of core shortage margin. Firmly optimistic about the independent rise, realize the brand upward and increase the market share with the help of reform, recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ], and benefit the target [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order, rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis, and firmly look at many parts. Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened. The accelerated growth of sales volume drives the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. It is recommended to recommend [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ] with greater flexibility, and the beneficiary objects [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of intelligent electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises are increasing the intelligent electric configuration, hoping to achieve the brand upward: preferred acoustics - [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], wired chassis - [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], domain controller - [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ], ceiling glass - [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], integrated die casting - [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], intelligent seats [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], interior decoration - [ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ] Platform type - [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ].
1) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ], beneficiary targets [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (covered by the new power group), Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ]; New energy thermal management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary targets [ Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficial targets [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) ].
2) intelligent increment: automatic driving [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Xingyu Co., Ltd.], the beneficiary object [Nextel]; Intelligent cockpit [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively).
Motorcycles: in December, China sold 33400 medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 107.1% and a month on month increase of + 28.3% (333000 motorcycles were sold from January to December, with a year-on-year increase of + 65.8%). Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. The share will be concentrated in independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommended [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
This week's market: overall weaker than the market, led by parts
This week, the A-share auto sector fell by 1.05% (weighted average of current market value, the same below), ranking 25th in shenwanzi industry, weaker than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (up 2.30%). The segments of automobile and truck services increased by 1.06% and 1.06% respectively, and the segments of automobile and truck services increased by 1.06% and 2.2% respectively; Other transportation equipment and auto parts decreased by 0.09% and 2.76% respectively.
Data this week: Wholesale and retail sales fell month on month, with a large decline in retail sales
In the fourth week of January, the average daily wholesale was 8.8 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 5% and a month on month increase of - 21%; In the fourth week of January, the average daily retail sales volume was 66000, with a year-on-year increase of - 32% and a month on month increase of - 29%. The overall retail data disclosure for the whole month of January has not been completed. At present, there are 2.09 million vehicles in the whole month, with a year-on-year decrease of 4% and a month on month decrease of 1%.
Risk tips
Chip supply shortage; Fluctuations in raw material costs; Sales recovery was less than expected.
