This week’s view
Iron and steel industry: low inventory, low supply and demand start soon
As of February 11, the five major varieties of thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling and wire rod reported 5022 yuan / ton, 5097 yuan / ton, 5228 yuan / ton, 5460 yuan / ton and 5360 yuan / ton respectively this week. The circumferential ratio changed by 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.7%, 3.0% and 4.0% respectively. In terms of social inventory, on February 11, the social inventory was 15.3713 million tons, with a weekly increase of 1.4645 million tons.
Gross profit per ton of steel rebounded. The gross profit per ton of steel for thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling and wire rod was 336 yuan, 304 yuan, 215 yuan, 269 yuan and 549 yuan respectively, up 159 yuan, 180 yuan, 172 yuan, 141 yuan and 158 yuan compared with last week.
After the Spring Festival holiday, the social finance data in January boosted market confidence. In terms of the industry, the total inventory is at a low level compared with the same period last year. At present, the industry is at the stage of low inventory, low supply and demand. In the short term, it is difficult to release the supply, while the demand in infrastructure and manufacturing is expected to start and resume one after another, and the price is expected to obtain fundamental support. On the cost side, the national development and Reform Commission has tightened its supervision on the rapid rise of iron ore and coal prices, and raw materials are expected to begin to fall.
In the field of infrastructure construction, the word “stability” of economy will take the lead in 2022, and all localities are expected to accelerate the construction of underground pipe network and major water conservancy and gas pipeline projects. Therefore, we believe that under the background of “stabilizing the economy”, the pipeline industry is expected to accelerate the release of demand again with certainty. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the pipeline industry under the stable economy.
In addition, our first steel subdivision high-end variety, electrical steel, is the core magnetic material driving modern industry. In particular, high-grade non oriented electrical steel for new energy vehicles has extremely high technical barriers. Baosteel and Shougang master the core technology. Because new energy vehicles can only use high-grade non oriented silicon steel instead of all varieties. It is estimated that the proportion of non oriented silicon steel for new energy vehicles will increase to 17% – 20% in 2021. In addition, the motor energy efficiency upgrading plan (2021-2023) is released. The improvement of motor energy efficiency standards will bring a lot of demand for high-grade non oriented silicon steel. It is suggested to pay attention to the main targets of electrical steel: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) .
Focus on the subject
Industrial sector companies: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) .
Key special steel companies: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) . Building materials companies: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Sgis Songshan Co.Ltd(000717) . Municipal pipeline material company: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) . Smart pipe network: Zhengyuan Geomatics Group Co.Ltd(688509)
Nonferrous Industry: according to the latest market price annualized calculation, the PE valuation is around 10 times, and the price will continue to rise. We are optimistic about the valuation and repair of rare earth and lithium, raw materials upstream of new energy
In the lithium sector, spodumene quoted us $2710 / ton this week, up 0%; Lithium hydroxide quoted 326500 yuan / ton, up 9.38%; The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 392000 yuan / ton, up 7.69%. In rare earth sector, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were quoted at 1.025 million yuan / ton, 3.07 million yuan / ton and 14.185 million yuan / ton this week, up 8.12%, 1.32% and 4.30% respectively. The spot supply of raw materials in the upstream of new energy continues to be tight, and the state of continuous low inventory in the industrial chain will remain. Driven by the replenishment of inventory by downstream enterprises, we expect the price center of lithium and rare earth to continue to rise;
In the magnetic materials sector, the introduction of energy-saving motor policy under the guidance of double carbon and the pull of magnetic materials under the rapid development of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic energy storage in the future. We are optimistic about the pull of rare earth permanent magnet materials under the trend of high-efficiency energy-saving and miniaturization of motors, and the demand of new high-efficiency soft magnetic materials silicon steel and metal soft magnetic powder cores in the new energy era;
In terms of industrial metals, SHFE copper prices rose 1.69% to close at 71480 yuan / ton this week; SHFE aluminum price rose 3.28% to close at 22670 yuan / ton. The fluctuation of macro data this week led to the increase of commodity futures price fluctuation in the middle of the week. (1) China added RMB loans of 3.98 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year, and M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations; (2) The US CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, higher than the expected 7.3%, the largest increase since 1982.
In terms of copper, affected by community problems, the production of Minmetals in the Las banbas copper mine in Peru may be stopped before February 20; After the holiday, the copper inventory was accumulated, and the current inventory is still low; The US CPI data exceeded expectations, further increasing the market’s concerns about raising interest rates and shrinking the table. The higher than expected progress of liquidity tightening is bad for copper prices. At the same time, the expected fermentation of China’s underpinning economy forms the opposite force with liquidity tightening in fundamentals.
In terms of aluminum, Russia Ukraine relations have further deteriorated, geopolitics has exacerbated the problem of energy shortage in Europe, and overseas production reduction is still possible to expand. In South China, due to the impact of the Baise epidemic in Guangxi, the production and shipment in Guangxi and Yunnan have been significantly affected. In the first quarter of this year, China resumed production. According to SMM and Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) data, the output of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.62% month on month in December 2021 and 2.42% month on month in January 2022. The volume and price of electrolytic aluminum in the process of resumption of production rose simultaneously.
At present, the average profit of simulated electrolytic aluminum industry has exceeded 5000 yuan / ton, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum continues to improve. After the off-season of the Spring Festival, policies related to steady growth are gradually implemented, which is expected to bring significant improvement in demand after the Spring Festival. At present, the valuations of basic metal related targets have reflected extremely pessimistic expectations. It is expected to usher in fundamental repair in the future. At the same time, superimposed valuation repair, the metal raw material industry will usher in a new round of market.
Focus on the subject
\u3000\u3000 China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) 、 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) 、 Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) 、 Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) 、 Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) 、 Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) 、 China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) 、 Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) 、 Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) 、 Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) 、 Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) 、 Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) 、 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) 、 Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) 、 Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) 、 Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) 、 Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) 、 Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) 。
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the risk of lower than expected demand in the downstream, and the risk of continuous spread of overseas epidemic.
