Core view
Weekly performance of sectors: this week (2022 / 2 / 7-2021 / 2 / 11), the Yangtze River machinery and equipment index fell by 0.6%, and the top five sectors were: oil and gas service III / coal equipment III / agricultural machinery / oil and gas equipment / internal combustion engine, with fluctuations of 10.2% / 7.3% / 5.7% / 5.0% / 3.9% respectively;
Sector valuation level: the median value of pettm in the machinery sector is 34x, of which the highest valuation is lithium battery equipment (88.1x) and the lowest valuation is construction machinery (15.2x). From the historical data within 10 years, the P / E ratio of the machinery sector is in the quantile of 18.79%;
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: the five stocks with the highest increase this week are Tangshan Jidong Equipment And Engineering Co.Ltd(000856) , Haimo Technologies Group Corp(300084) , Guizhou Wire Rope Co.Ltd(600992) , Zhejiang Zhongjian Technology Co.Ltd(002779) and Deshi shares;
Industry highlights: the National Energy Administration released the statistical data of national power industry in 2021; Announcement of the opinions of the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation; The installed capacity of grid connected photovoltaic power generation in China has exceeded 300 million KW, and the distributed development has become a new bright spot.
Investment proposal and investment object
The export of excavators continues to grow, and the domestic sales still need to stabilize: the sales volume of excavators in January is still in the decline channel, but the decline has narrowed. According to the industry statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 15607 excavators were sold in January 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%. Among them, 8282 units were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 48.3%; The export sales volume was 7325 units, with a year-on-year increase of 104.9%. From the perspective of overseas mining machine utilization, Japan's domestic mining machine utilization remained at a very high rate of 35.0% in June, while China's domestic and foreign mining machine utilization remained at a high rate of 35.0% in June, while China's domestic mining machine utilization remained at a low rate of 1.0% in June. From the perspective of policy, the market has observed the marginal improvement of real estate and the centralized commencement of infrastructure projects. However, from the perspective of industrial chain transmission, in 2021, the area of purchased land decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, the area of newly started houses decreased by 11.4% and the growth rate of infrastructure investment was 0.2%. Based on the weak investment last year, it is difficult to recover the construction equipment quickly at present, Through the utilization rate of tower crane leaseholders, it can also be found that the construction started in January of 22 is relatively general. But looking ahead, we believe that China's demand for engineering equipment has gradually entered the bottom grinding process. According to the data of the central bank, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year, including 3.36 trillion yuan of loans to enterprises (Institutions) and 2.1 trillion yuan of medium and long-term loans to enterprises and institutions, rising compared with last year, reflecting that downstream demand is expected to gradually stabilize.
It is recommended to pay attention to:
(1) construction machinery: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (600031, not rated), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) (000157, bought), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) (601100, not rated), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) (600984, not rated), Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) (603638, not rated); (2) Industrial equipment: Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) (603298, Unrated), Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) (600761, Unrated), Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) (000837, Unrated), Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) (300415, Unrated), Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) (002747, Unrated), Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) (300607, Unrated); (3) Logistics automation: Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) (603066, not rated), Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603611) (603611, not rated), Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) (301039, not rated); (4) Energy equipment: Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450, not rated), Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) (300724, not rated), Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) (002353, not rated), Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) (601717, not rated), Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) (600582, not rated); (5) Rail transit equipment: Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) (601766, not rated), Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) (000976, not rated); (6) Service & Consumption: Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) (300572, Unrated), Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) (300012, Unrated), Jack Sewing Machine Co.Ltd(603337) (603337, Unrated), Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) (603583, Unrated), Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) (605288, Unrated), Hangzhou Youngsun Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603901) (603901, Unrated).
Risk tips
The development of the epidemic is less than expected, the macro economy is less than expected, infrastructure investment is less than expected, raw material prices rise, and Global trade conflicts intensify.
