Industry perspective update:
Home furnishing: this week, according to the financial Associated Press, the national measures for the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing were issued. It is expected that this adjustment is an effective way to alleviate the cash flow pressure of many real estate enterprises in the short term. The real estate side is expected to gradually usher in the implementation of substantive improvement policies. After that, the pressure on real estate sales and home demand is also expected to be alleviated marginally, and the valuation bottom of the home sector is basically consolidated. In this context, we believe that we need to pay more attention to the changes on the supply side of the industry in 2022. Under the trend of integrated customization and software sales, the requirements for the comprehensive ability of enterprises will be higher, the competition threshold will be significantly improved, and the industry pattern is expected to usher in marginal optimization. On the whole, we are still optimistic about Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) with significantly leading comprehensive ability and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) with gradual results of in-depth reform. In addition, although the price of raw materials has rebounded recently, on the whole, the price of raw materials has decreased from the high point of last year. It is still recommended to actively pay attention to the profit restoration of household OEM enterprises with high export share.
New type of tobacco: in terms of atomization sector, according to the latest announcement of British American Tobacco this week, the global revenue of VUSE products in 21 years has increased by + 59% year-on-year, especially in the United States. The market share has continued to increase since 2021, reaching 35.9% at the end of 21, only 0.1% lower than that of Juul. It has ranked first in many states and cities in the United States. It is expected that the market share will officially exceed that of Juul in 22 years, In addition, the proportion of Alto series manufactured by SIMORE has increased 7pct to 90% in 21 years, which shows that SIMORE will still have strong growth guarantee in overseas markets in 22 years. From the perspective of China, according to our recent grassroots research, the goods age of mainstream brand cigarette bombs in the first and second tier cities is about 2-3 months, and the channel inventory has decreased significantly compared with the previous one. The overall e-cigarette channel inventory has gradually been at a low level, and smore’s business in China is expected to gradually regain its ideal growth.
Papermaking: the moderate price increase letter of paper enterprises has been successfully implemented, and the profit per ton is expected to be repaired quarterly. 1) Operating angle: the operating rates of coated paper and double offset paper this week were – 0.22% and – 5.54% month on month, the operating load rate of white cardboard was + 0.41% compared with last week, and the operating rates of box board corrugated paper were + 2.84% and + 4.84% month on month respectively. 2) Inventory angle: the inventory days of coated paper and double offset paper this week are + 0.72% and + 0.12% respectively, the inventory of white cardboard is – 0.09%, and the inventory of box board corrugated paper is – 2.56% and – 2.47% respectively; 3) Cost side: Maintenance & shipping increased the pressure on the supply side, with strong cost support. In March, the downstream demand was repaired quarterly, and the profit of paper enterprises per ton was better quarter by quarter.
Gehu: weimeizi, the parent company of Shuke, submitted a prospectus, and the layout of medium and high-end full category oral care blossomed at many points. As the leader of domestic brands of children’s, electric oral care and professional oral care, with accurate brand positioning, product innovation and flexible channel strategy, the company ranks 4th / 4th / 1st in China’s oral care / electric oral care / children’s oral care market respectively. The company’s revenue from 2019 / 2020 / 1-9m2021 was RMB 1.66/16.2/1.23 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 2.8% / + 14.8% from 2020 / 1-9m2021. Driven by the improvement of consumers’ attention to oral care and the product innovation driven by the demand for subdivision specialization, we are optimistic about the growth opportunities brought by domestic enterprises represented by weimeizi with the innovation and upgrading of basic products & the extension of oral care subdivision products.
Investment advice
Home furnishings: recommend Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (Integrated Business & platform), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (concentration of domestic sales share & export profit elasticity), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (it is improving in many aspects, and there is a large space for valuation and repair).
Papermaking: it is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , repair the fundamentals quarter by quarter from 1q, pick up the demand of cultural paper in the peak season from late February, replenish the stock & under the background of low profit, it is optimistic about the price increase and landing of paper mills, the cost end of Guangxi 800000 tons of chemical pulp is put into operation, and the rebound of external pulp price has a limited impact on the cost; Marginal weakening of energy cost pressure; Capacity climbing & the third phase project promotes the release of performance flexibility. The Pb valuation is 1.6x, which has the valuation cost performance.
Pet: it is suggested to pay attention to Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) (the adverse factors of export business gradually dissipate, the production capacity is climbing and reorganizing in 22 years, it is expected that 1q-2q22 will usher in the performance inflection point, the Chinese brand strategy has been sorted out, focus on independent brands, increase the investment in new channels and accelerate growth).
Risk factors
The extent and duration of the slowdown in China’s consumption growth exceeded expectations; Real estate sales have been shrinking sharply for a long time; The rising range and time of chemical raw material prices exceeded expectations; The exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
