Recently, oil prices hit a new high of around $95. Under high oil prices, what variables need to be paid attention to and what investment opportunities are there in the petrochemical sector?
1) on the demand side, whether based on IEA forecast or OPEC forecast, the global crude oil demand will reach or slightly exceed the previous high level in 2019 in 2022. Aviation kerosene demand is the last link in the repair of global oil demand.
2) under the pressure of carbon neutralization, the recovery rate of shale oil capital expenditure, drilling activities and production data has been slower than expected in 2021. Capital expenditure and supply elasticity are expected to return in 2022.
3) the output of OPEC is lower than expected, and the market is worried that the actual output increasing capacity of OPEC is limited. Led by Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, the three Gulf countries still have the capacity to increase production (we estimate it at about 3.2 million barrels / day). We pay attention to the willingness of the three Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, to increase production, which determines whether the market can be balanced from May 2022.
Oil price view: it is not ruled out that it will rise further in the short term, and it is expected to fall in the second quarter, and the central bank may maintain $70-80 for the whole year.
Investment perspective: 1) pay attention to the trading opportunities in the oil service sector, with China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) being the first; 2) Among the oil companies, CNOOC is the first. Focus on Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , and Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) ; 3) Alternative route chemicals benefit from the high central oil price. Satellite chemistry and Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) are recommended.
Risk warning: the risk that the oil price falls sharply and the central hub in 2022 is significantly lower than our expectation; Risk of insufficient willingness of capital expenditure of oil companies; Risk of rapid increase in material (such as steel) and labor costs.
