Express delivery: during the Spring Festival, the volume and price of express delivery meet expectations, and pay attention to the performance of the industry after the festival; Ezhou Huahu airport is expected to complete the test flight in March and sail in June; Continue to be optimistic about the high-quality development of the express industry in 2022.
1) during the Spring Festival, the growth rate of express delivery volume was in line with expectations, the price performance was strong, and attention was paid to the industry competition after the festival: during the Spring Festival holiday (1.31-2.6), the national express industry received and delivered 749 million express packages, an increase of 16% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year. From the beginning of the Spring Festival transportation on January 17 to February 6 (a total of 21 days), the national express industry received 3.89 billion express packages, an increase of 34.1% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year; 4.46 billion express parcels were delivered, an increase of 36.94% over the same period last year. During the Spring Festival, the volume of express delivery increased rapidly, which mainly benefited from the change of consumption habits brought about by the non closing of the Spring Festival. At the same time, there was an increase in the demand for gift delivery and new year goods during the local Spring Festival; In terms of price, according to the Spring Festival announcement of various enterprises, there is a certain increase in the price of parts, and the terminal price is strong. At present, all express delivery enterprises have gradually entered the normal operation after the festival, focusing on the performance of volume and price.
2) during the Spring Festival, the consumption data of various e-commerce platforms were good, and the live e-commerce maintained rapid growth: the turnover of JD (1.31-2.5) increased by more than 50% year-on-year; 1.31-2.6 sales increased by 119%, while ice sports products and related tiktok continued to sell well, with sales up 924% year-on-year. Mobile phone Kwai 1.1-2.3 (total) orders grew by 84% over the same period last year, and GMV grew by 121% over the same period. Clothing, shoes, food, beauty care, jewelry watches and mobile phones became the most popular TOP5. The Spring Festival holiday is superimposed with the Winter Olympic Games, and the consumption data of e-commerce is good.
3) Ezhou Huahu airport has entered the sprint stage, and the pre flight test work has been started, striving to realize navigation by the end of June: on January 24, Huahu airport completed the verification flight for nearly one month, and all the test subjects were qualified. At present, the pre flight test “simulator verification” has been started and is expected to be completed by the end of February. On February 9, after investigating the key projects of Huahu airport, Wang Zhonglin, deputy secretary of Hubei provincial Party committee and governor of Hubei Province, stressed that the goal of “completing the test flight by the end of March and opening the airport by the end of June” should not be relaxed, promoted the completion and operation of the airport as scheduled, accelerated the construction of “double hubs” and integrated into “double circulation”.
The price of Tongda Department remains stable, the high-quality development direction of the industry is determined, and it is optimistic about the improvement of industry profitability and leading competitiveness. Shunfeng has established the inflection point of operation and is optimistic about the leading value of comprehensive logistics. The policy promotes franchised express delivery to curb irrational competition and emphasize high-quality development. The price center of Tongda express delivery moves upward. It is expected that the profits of leading enterprises will be significantly improved in 2022; From a medium and long-term perspective, under the background of continuous improvement of online penetration, the demand growth of the express industry is highly deterministic, and service has become a new competitive factor. After the pattern is stable, the industry leaders will fully benefit from the increase of share and profit; A shares mainly recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (the inflection point of fundamentals is established), Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and US stocks are optimistic about China Express.
Aviation: Pfizer oral drugs have been approved for import, and overseas countries have gradually lifted entry restrictions. They are optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in the aviation industry after the epidemic is alleviated, and aviation enterprises have high profit elasticity.
1) Pfizer oral drugs have been approved for import, overseas countries have gradually lifted entry restrictions, and international air travel is expected to gradually recover: on February 12, according to the State Food and drug administration, Pfizer’s covid-19 oral drugs were conditionally approved for import registration by the State Food and drug administration. According to previously disclosed data, the drug can reduce the risk of hospitalization or death of non hospitalized high-risk adults with covid-19 by 89%. The UK and Japan relaxed the epidemic prevention and control policies: from February 11, passengers who have been fully vaccinated only need to fill in the passenger positioning form when entering the UK. There is no need to conduct any covid-19 test before and after entering the UK, and there is no need to isolate after entering the UK; On February 12, the Japanese government announced that it plans to gradually lift the entry restrictions during February and formally discuss the lifting of the entry restrictions after March. Overseas countries gradually lift the entry restrictions, and covid-19 oral drugs are approved for import. In the future, China is expected to gradually increase the pilot tests with countries and regions with good epidemic prevention and control, test China’s dynamic zero pressure, and gradually resume international flights on the premise of external defense input.
2) the civil aviation administration predicts that the air passenger traffic volume may return to 75% – 85% before the epidemic in 2022, and the operation of the aviation department is expected to usher in an inflection point: on February 8, according to the director of the comprehensive Department of the Civil Aviation Administration, under different circumstances of the overseas epidemic, the passenger traffic volume in 2022 is expected to return to 75% before the epidemic (the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China is steadily improving, and the overseas epidemic continues to spread) 85% (the epidemic situation in China has improved significantly, the overseas epidemic has an inflection point and the overall high level hovers), 100% and higher (the overseas epidemic has dropped sharply after the inflection point, and the epidemic situation in China has basically achieved “social clearance”). On the whole, it is difficult for the epidemic to subside comprehensively. The annual passenger volume may return to 75% – 85% of that before the epidemic. The operation of airlines is expected to usher in a profit and loss inflection point and enter the post epidemic repair period.
3) the data of Spring Festival transportation has improved significantly year-on-year, and there is still a gap compared with that before the epidemic: in the 27 days before the Spring Festival transportation this year (1.17-2.12), the national civil aviation is expected to send 24.81 million passengers, up from – 49.7% in 2019 and + 37.5% in 2021. The year-on-year improvement is significant, and it has recovered to about 50% compared with that before the epidemic. A total of 265607 flights were carried out by civil aviation passenger flights nationwide, up from – 34.2% in 2019 to + 29.4% in 2021, with an average seating rate of 54.3% and + 3.2pts in 2021. The number of flights and seating rate increased significantly year-on-year. Under the one size fits all ban on the local Chinese new year, the air travel of Spring Festival transportation in 2022 has significantly improved year-on-year. However, there is still a large gap compared with that before the epidemic when the epidemic is still spreading all over the country and the international line remains very low. It is expected that the aviation industry will continue to recover with the further control of the epidemic throughout the year.
On the demand side, the worst period of the epidemic is basically over. With the promotion of vaccination and specific drugs, the suppressed travel demand will gradually recover. On the supply side, the introduction of airlines’ transport capacity is slow, Boeing and Airbus orders accumulate, and even the 737max go around still does not change the low growth rate of transport capacity. The low growth rate of supply in the medium term has high certainty. In addition, the market-oriented reform of civil aviation ticket prices has opened up the space for price elasticity. The inflection point of supply and demand certainty is superimposed on the upward ticket price, and aviation is expected to usher in a round of growth cycle. Focus on recommending Air China Limited(601111) with high-quality routes (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); Low cost aviation leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ; China line accounts for a high proportion of China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) with high performance flexibility; China Eastern Airlines with obvious location advantages; Focus on Regional Airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Airport: the passenger throughput of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) ranked first in 2021 and recovered to more than 50% of the top of the epidemic. The passenger throughput of Shanghai and Shanghai achieved positive growth year-on-year. According to the statistics of Feiyou technology, among the top 10 passenger throughput in 2021, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) passenger throughput was 40231000, ranking first, with a year-on-year increase of – 8.1% and – 45.2% compared with 2019; The passenger throughput of Bao’an airport was 36.342 million, ranking third, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.2%, compared with – 31.3% in 2019. The year-on-year decrease in the passenger volume of Baiyun and Bao’an was mainly affected by the epidemic in Guangzhou and Shenzhen during the year; The passenger throughput of Shanghai Hongqiao was 33.174 million, ranking fifth, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.4%, compared with – 27.3% in 2019; The passenger throughput of the capital airport was 32.649 million, ranking sixth, with a year-on-year decrease of – 5.4% and – 67.4% compared with 2019. The year-on-year decrease in the passenger volume of the capital airport was mainly affected by Beijing’s sporadic cases and epidemic prevention policies; The passenger throughput of Pudong airport was 32.162 million, ranking eighth, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.5%, down from – 57.8% in 2019.
The short-term airport aviation business has declined due to the disturbance of the epidemic, and the epidemic in China is generally controllable. With the continuous promotion of vaccination, China’s international aviation passenger flow is expected to gradually recover. In the long run, the airport’s aviation business is stable, while the tax-free industry has huge space. Listed airports will continue to benefit from tax-free dividends in the future, focusing on the airport leaders Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Road and Railway: the passenger flow during the Spring Festival holiday showed a trend of “low before high”, and the railway passenger flow returned to 60% before the epidemic. 27 days before the Spring Festival transportation this year (1.17-2.12), the national railway is expected to send 159 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of + 39.5%, compared with – 40.8% in 2019. In addition, during the 7-day Spring Festival holiday (1.31-2.6), 7392 passenger trains were operated on a daily basis, a year-on-year increase of 28%. Generally speaking, the passenger flow during the Spring Festival holiday shows a trend of “low in the front and high in the back”. The lowest passenger flow occurs on the first day of the first month, and the peak passenger flow occurs on the sixth day of the first month. According to the State Railway Group, the target passenger flow of Railway Spring Festival transportation in 2022 is 276 million, nearly 58% of which has been completed in the first 27 days. According to the current growth rate, it is expected that the passenger flow of Railway Spring Festival transportation this year will exceed the expected data.
Investment strategy of this week: during the Spring Festival, the express volume and price performance meet the expectations, and the policy supervision determines the future growth expectation and high-quality development path of the industry. In 2022, the profits of Tongda system will continue to be repaired, the industry will gradually turn to service differentiated competition, and be optimistic about the inflection point and leading price of the industry. In addition, Shunfeng, the leader of comprehensive logistics, ushers in the inflection point of operation; China’s aviation demand continues to recover, overseas countries gradually relax control, and international lines release marginal improvement expectations. At the same time, supply certainty slows down. They are optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in the aviation industry and the superposition of fare market-oriented reform to open up flexible space. Combination this week: Air China Limited(601111) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) .
Risk tips:
1) the risk of macroeconomic downturn will have a great impact on the overall demand for transportation.
2) the price competition in the express industry exceeds the market expectation. At present, the price war in the express industry is generally controllable, but it does not rule out a large-scale price war, eroding the profits of listed companies.
3) risk of rising oil price and labor cost. Transportation and labor costs, as the main costs of transportation companies, may face the risk of rising oil prices and sharply rising labor costs.
