Nonferrous Metals outperformed the market this week, with an increase of 6.83%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02% to close at 3462.95; The index closed at 1320.78% in Shenzhen; The CSI 300 rose 0.82% to close at 4601.40.
Base metal
The current market of base metals is relatively strong in this cycle. Futures market: LME aluminum, zinc, lead, tin and nickel increased by 3.63%, 1.12%, 3.48%, 1.62% and 1.37% over the same period last week; LME copper prices fell 0.46%. China’s spot market: aluminum, nickel, tin, copper, zinc and lead increased by 5.91%, 3.85%, 3.18%, 2.83%, 1.71% and 0.49% respectively. Copper: copper prices fluctuated slightly this week. Recently, US inflation has been high, and the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates has restrained copper prices. However, the demand side steady growth policy combined with low inventory is expected to give short-term support to copper prices. In terms of inventory, as of Friday, SHFE copper inventory was about 107000 tons, up 164.1% from the same period last week. Aluminum: the sharp rise in aluminum prices this week is due to the uncertainty in the growth of aluminum supply at home and abroad and the improvement in demand after the festival. Domestic supply disturbances are frequent, and the continuous fermentation of the European energy crisis has led to a further reduction in the production of Hydro’s slovalco aluminum plant to about 60%. In terms of China’s supply, the Guangxi epidemic has led to the shutdown of some local aluminum plants and the obstruction of transportation, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum in China has been tightened. Consumer demand is expected to improve, the demand toughness of real estate and infrastructure related industries is prominent, and China’s aluminum inventory remains low. As of Friday, SHFE aluminum inventory was 296800 tons, up 11.20% from the same period last week. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) .
New energy metals
The price performance of new energy metals this week is relatively differentiated. Cobalt: the price of cobalt rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the spot price of cobalt in the Yangtze River was 518000 yuan / ton, up 2.98% from last week. The overall price of cobalt salt is relatively stable. The price of cobalt sulfate is 106000 yuan / ton, up 0.95% from last week; The price of Co3O4 was 412500 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. Shipping pressure still exists, transportation obstruction affects the supply of cobalt raw materials, and the current situation of tight cobalt supply still exists. Although some traders have completed the preparation before the festival, the market demand for battery materials has warmed up, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise steadily. Lithium: the lithium salt market maintained stable operation this week, and the price of lithium salt rose. As of Friday, the price of lithium carbonate was 370000 yuan / ton, up 8.82% year-on-year from last week; The price of lithium hydroxide was 250500 yuan / ton, up 11.09% year-on-year from last week. After the festival, the upstream and downstream are in the state of resumption of work and production, but the supply of resources at the mine end is difficult to meet the high market demand in the short term, and the current situation of short supply still exists. It is expected that the high lithium price will maintain stable operation. It is suggested to focus on: the subject of cobalt industry integration layout Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) ; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of salt lake lithium: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Lithium mica related subject matter: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangdian special machine; Spodumene related subject matter: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) .
Precious metals
Precious metals fluctuated upward as a whole this week. Gold: as of Friday, Comex gold price was US $1827.3/oz, up 1.02% from last week; Spot gold in London was $1835.4 per ounce, up 1.70% from last week. Silver: Comex silver price was US $23.21/oz, up 3.04% from last week; The spot silver price in London was US $23.36/ounce, up 3.78%. High global inflation, repeated epidemics and geopolitics have increased the market demand for safe haven gold. Recently, the inflation expectation implied in the US bond market is still high, the market expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike is increased again, and the gold price remains volatile. Suggestions: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) .
Risk tips
The demand is less than expected; The European energy crisis continues to ferment; Risk of policy changes.
