The shortage of chips is gradually alleviated, and the automobile market will usher in repair in 2022. It is estimated that in January 2022, the retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars will reach 2.09 million units, with a year-on-year decrease of 3% ~ 4%, the year-on-year negative growth rate will be reduced compared with the previous month, and the automobile market will recover steadily. According to AFS prediction, due to the shortage of chips, the Chinese market will reduce the production by about 155000 units in 2022, which is a significant improvement compared with the reduction of 1.98 million units in 2021. In 2022, the sales targets of all auto enterprises are high. In addition to the demand of auto enterprises for replenishment, the chip will be in short supply as a whole. We expect that China’s auto sales will reach 28 million units in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%.
In January, the outlook of new energy vehicles continued, and the price of new energy vehicles ushered in a rising tide. From the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January announced by some new energy vehicle enterprises, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January maintained a year-on-year high growth, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January is expected to reach about 450000 units. Due to the decline in subsidies and the rise in the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles, some auto enterprises have raised the price of new energy vehicles, with a price increase range of about thousands of yuan. Auto enterprises are relatively cautious in raising prices. The sales of new energy vehicles in January may overdraw the demand in subsequent months. The new energy vehicle market in February and March remains to be observed, but in the long run, new energy vehicles will remain high, It is expected to achieve a 50% growth rate in 2022.
There are many heavy intelligent new cars in 2022, and various car enterprises have crossed the sea. The new power of head car making is expected to double year-on-year growth in 2022, and the high-level driving assistance function based on big computing chip will also be implemented in 2022; Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric + hybrid two wheel drive, aiming at the sales target of 1.5 million new energy vehicles in 2022; Great Wall Euler will launch four new cars in 2022, with a price band covering 150000 ~ 300000 yuan and a target sales volume of 300000 units. Great Wall will also implement the auxiliary driving function of urban scene and whole scene successively in 2022, and the landing rhythm is in the first echelon of the industry; Geely krypton will also launch two new models in 2022, with a sales target of 70000 units. At the same time, it will launch a power replacement brand, and 7Nm cockpit chips will also be mass produced in 2022; Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) high end pure electric new cars will be launched soon, and the joint venture brand will launch a number of heavy new models in 2022; Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) the sales volume of ai’an continues to reach a new high, and the Japanese joint venture brand will start the new energy strategy in 2022.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, the auto industry will usher in a recovery. For auto enterprises with strong benefits, new product cycle and fast landing speed of intelligent products, it is strongly recommended to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (2333. HK), Geely Automobile (0175. HK), Xiaopeng automobile (9868. HK) and Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) . At the same time, it is recommended to pay attention to Weilai and ideal development trends; Recommend suppliers Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) benefiting from the increasing penetration of electric smart vehicles; In terms of battery materials, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) are strongly recommended; Software defines vehicle acceleration, and the demand for software and hardware services such as domain controller and intelligent vehicle operating system will grow rapidly. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) and Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) .
Risk tips: 1) the recovery degree of chip supply is less than expected; 2) Continuous high investment affects the company’s operation and drags down the company’s performance; 3) Independent brands are less than expected in intelligent technology and management transformation; 4) The price rise of new energy vehicles led to the sales volume of new energy vehicles falling short of expectations.
