Key investment points:
Market review: as of February 11, 2022, Shenwan auto sector fell 1.10% in the week, 1.92 percentage points lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 27th among Shenwan 31 industries. Among the five sub sectors of Shenwan automobile industry, only the auto parts sector fell, while the rest rose. The motorcycle and other service sectors rose by 45.0%, while the motorcycle and other service sectors rose by 1.0%, and the performance of the commercial vehicle sector rose by 1.0%. The top three companies with weekly growth were Shenzhen Roadrover Technology Co.Ltd(002813) , Hyunion Holding Co.Ltd(002537) , Guizhou Guihang Automotive Components Co.Ltd(600523) , up 29.07%, 17.62% and 17.23% respectively. The top three companies with weekly declines were Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) , Ningbo Hengshuai Co.Ltd(300969) , Jee Technology Co.Ltd(688162) , with declines of 20.87%, 17.49% and 15.27% respectively. In terms of valuation, as of February 11, the pettm of Shenwan automobile sector was 27 times, at the quantile of 74.02% in recent five years and 85.32% in recent ten years; In terms of sub sectors, the pettm of automobile service sector is 18 times, that of auto parts sector is 25 times, that of passenger car sector is 33 times, and that of commercial vehicle sector is 21 times.
Key industrial news: 1. On February 10, the passenger Federation: the overall retail data in January has not been locked. At present, the data is 2.09 million vehicles in the whole month, a year-on-year decrease of 4% and a month on month decrease of 1%. The wholesale data of manufacturers in January has not been locked. According to the preliminary statistics, there were 2.072 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 2% and a month on month decrease of 12%. 2. Recently, Xiao Yaqing, convener of the inter ministerial Joint Conference on energy conservation and new energy vehicle industry development and Minister of industry and information technology, presided over the 2022 annual working meeting of the inter ministerial joint conference. The meeting requested that in 2022, we should vigorously promote the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry, and study and clarify the support policies such as the continuation of the preferential purchase tax for new energy vehicles as soon as possible. This means that the implementation period of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy may be extended for the third time after the vehicle purchase tax exemption period of new energy vehicles was extended twice in 2017 and 2020.
View of the Auto Industry Week: the overall performance of the auto sector this week is backward, showing a continuous adjustment trend recently, and the valuation has been callback below the average value of nearly one year. According to the preliminary data of the association, the wholesale data of manufacturers in January increased slightly year-on-year, fell by double digits month on month, and the retail data decreased slightly year-on-year and month on month, reflecting the continuous recovery of chip supply and the impact of the effect before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the subsequent automobile production and sales data is expected to continue to improve, the inventory replenishment trend will continue, and the demand of parts and components will continue to repair. In 2022, the development of new energy vehicles will continue to be vigorously promoted, the new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain a high growth momentum, and the extension of vehicle purchase tax and other supporting policies are expected to be implemented within the year. It is suggested to focus on the active transformation to electric intelligence and benefit from the new elastic targets of order replenishment after the improvement of chip supply: Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (603596), Weifu High-Technology Group Co.Ltd(000581) (000581).
Risk tips: the improvement of chip supply is less than expected, the production and sales of cars are less than expected, the iteration of new technology reform, the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices, the intensification of market competition, the safety risk of electric vehicles, etc.
