1. Pig sector: continue to recommend investment opportunities in the sector after investigation in Hunan and Sichuan this week!
1) the trend of pig production capacity removal has become, and some databases show that the cumulative removal range has reached. According to Yongyi data, the sample stock of fertile sows in January continued to decline by 1.6% month on month (a cumulative decline of 13.8%), including 5.62% in South China; Affected by the marginal increase of temperature and winter epidemic disease, the production efficiency indexes of sows decreased month on month, including 9.83 healthy piglets in January (decreased by 0.36 month on month); The survival rate of piglet delivery room was 84.76% (down 1.88 PCT month on month). According to the survey this week, most breeding enterprises / households are pessimistic about the medium and short-term pig price. It is difficult to accurately grasp the timing of the reversal of the pig cycle. Controlling the capacity expansion in stages and reducing costs and improving efficiency are the theme of the current stage. From the data of Yongyi, the number of large group samples still decreased month on month in January, with a decrease of about 0.78%.
2) the price of pigs fell rapidly this week. As of February 13, the average price of pigs was 12.18 yuan / kg, down 1.7 yuan / kg compared with last weekend (according to zhinongtong). After the festival, farmers are pessimistic about the price of pigs and have a weak mood to press the fence. The weight of pigs dropped further to 116.49kg/head, down 15% from the peak of 136.88kg/head in 2021 (according to Yongyi). The price of pigs fell, and the loss of self breeding farmers increased. Based on the full cost of 16.5 yuan / kg, the average loss per head has reached 500 yuan / head. It is expected that the production capacity of the industry is expected to be further reduced.
3) we believe that although the current pig market has not fully started and resumed production, and the pig price does not necessarily reflect the real level of supply and demand, the pig price has fallen rapidly this week, and the weight is still marginally reduced, showing the current situation of loose supply. It is expected that the slack in supply and demand will still intensify in the off-season after the Spring Festival, the pig price will still be under pressure, and the deregulation of production capacity is expected to accelerate marginally; In the medium and long term, the trend of de breeding sows in the industry has become, and the bottom of the current pig cycle has been relatively clear. After the performance forecast of pig stocks in 2021 has been disclosed, the current valuation of pig stocks is still relatively low, and the investment value of pig stocks is prominent! Target: focus on [ Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) ] (with high growth elasticity and sufficient capital reserves), [ Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ] (with cost advantage and steady growth), followed by [ New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ], [ Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) ], [ Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) ], [ Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) ], [ Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) ], [ Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) ], [ Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) ], [COFCO Jiakang], etc.
2. Animal protection sector: the progress of non plague vaccine deserves attention, and the margin of animal protection industry has improved
At present, some enterprises have submitted the application for emergency evaluation of African swine fever subunit vaccine; The state has also publicized the establishment of several technical routes of African classical swine fever vaccine, which has been included in the national key R & D plan. If the African classical swine fever vaccine is launched in the future, it will further open the growth space of the industry. In terms of technology path, the sub unit is expected to take the lead in making positive progress with the advantage of security. Affected by factors such as the decline of pig price in the early stage, the performance of animal insurance company in the second half of 2021 is under pressure; We expect that with the rise of pig prices, immunization procedures will gradually return to normal, and the demand is expected to gradually improve. Key recommendations: [ Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) ] (industry leader, significantly leading in R & D, process and channel, with large expectation difference), [ Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) ] (R & D fulfillment + product supplement + marketing upgrading, with performance expected to continue to grow), [ China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) ] (central enterprise background, dynamic security leader, complete product line layout), [ Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) ] (non compulsory vaccine leader, with core product market share continuing to lead).
3. Seed sector: the national planting industry development plan of the 14th five year plan attaches importance to the seed industry and pays attention to the investment opportunities of the seed industry
We believe that the policy will continue to support the sector after the introduction of the genetically modified quality certification method; Companies that attach importance to R & D investment and have strong innovation ability, especially those with rich reserves of transgenic technology, are expected to get policy support and launch competitive seed products. In addition, the tight balance between supply and demand of corn will be maintained throughout the year, the price will remain high, and farmers’ planting enthusiasm is expected to continue to increase. Continue to highlight: [ Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) ] (the participating companies have rich reserves of transgenic technology and outstanding advantages in traditional varieties and channels), [ Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ] (leading transgenic technology, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) bio transgenic corn has the widest expansion area), [ Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) ] (leading corn seeds, which is expected to seize the opportunity of transgenic corn), [ Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) ] (relying on Syngenta group, it is expected to achieve leapfrog development).
4. Continue to focus on the recommendation of agricultural white horse: strong core competitiveness, long-term focus and outstanding value
1) [ Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) ]: high quality white horse, α And β Double liter. The market share of the main feed industry is expected to accelerate, the profitability will be gradually improved, the progress of animal protection seedlings will be superimposed, and the expected performance will grow rapidly. It is recommended.
2) [ Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) ]: China’s white feather broiler is the leader, with a 2B + 2C two-way breakthrough at the food end. There are reserves in the R & D channels of prefabricated vegetable products. The breakthrough of sz901 breeding chickens is superimposed to open the imagination space for the growth of the company.
3) [ Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ]: the company has 1.8 million tons of monoammonium phosphate, the majority shareholder of which has been partially injected into phosphate rock, and has strongly cut into the production of iron phosphate (complete supporting facilities and significant cost advantage are expected), opening up room for growth in the future.
Risk warning: policy risk; Epidemic risk; Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuation; Extreme weather; Import changes
