As of February 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.82% this week. Steel sector rose 6.95%; Among the sub sectors, the ordinary steel sector increased by 0.00%, and the special material sector increased by 4.49%.
Steel market: steady growth drives high steel prices, and the guidance emphasizes production restriction and low-carbon and high-quality development
Steel prices are running at a high level this week. Steel prices generally rose this week, with spot prices of rebar, hot rolling, cold rolling and medium sector rising by 4.44%, 4.03%, 3.27% and 3.83% respectively. At the demand level, steady growth has become the main theme of the market in the near future, social finance data reached a new high (an increase of 6.17 trillion in January), and credit is widened to enhance the expectation of steady growth and stable infrastructure; On the supply side, on February 7, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of ecological environment jointly issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry, which not only provided more macro and comprehensive guidance for China’s iron and steel industry to better adapt to the new requirements of green, low-carbon and high-quality development and continuously promote the supply side structural reform, It has also made specific arrangements and arrangements for the quality improvement and upgrading and low-carbon transformation of the iron and steel industry, and the guidance clearly prohibits new production capacity; In addition, during the Winter Olympics, the production capacity of northern steel plant is still limited, and the overall output increment is limited.
In terms of special steel, stainless steel has good support for a long time, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention. In the long run, with the support of the national carbon peak policy, the reduction of crude steel production has become a deterministic trend, which is important for the price and profit of stainless steel. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) and other targets.
As the core metal material in the field of new energy vehicles, electrical steel is also a sector worthy of attention. Electrical steel is the motor and core material of new energy vehicles. Under the resonance of carbon neutralization at the policy end, accelerated admission of new and old car making forces at the supply end, and improved economy and convenience at the consumer end, new energy vehicles have developed rapidly, driving the downstream demand for electrical steel, The electrical steel sector has ushered in a major opportunity, but at present, the valuation of Companies in the sector is generally not high. They are optimistic about the electrical steel sector for a long time. It is suggested to focus on Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , etc.
The price of rebar in the spot market this week was 4940.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.44%; The price of hot rolled coil is 5160.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.03%; The price of cold rolled coil was 5680.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.27%; The price of medium board was 5150.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.83%. In the futures market, the active contract price of rebar was 4905.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.57%; The active contract price of hot rolled coil was 5033.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.78%; The active contract price of wire rod was 5270.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.50%. The myspic composite steel price index was 185.89 points, with a weekly increase of 3.93%, of which the myspic long material index rose 4.16% and the myspic flat sector index rose 3.66%.
Raw material Market: the spot is in short supply, the market mentality is bullish, the operating rate is down, and the price is firm
This week, the coke market decreased slightly and the iron ore market consolidated at a high level. In terms of dual coke, the finished product market has increased after the festival. Under the influence of production restriction, coupled with the reduction of coking coal price, the support of coke cost side is loose, and most iron and steel enterprises have relatively abundant coke resources in the plant after the festival. In addition, due to the regional influence of production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games, the demand side is insufficient. In terms of iron ore, the market has strong expectations for the resumption of production after the festival, so the iron ore market has made a good start after the Spring Festival. Then the national level carried out policy regulation on iron ore, and the iron ore price was adjusted at a high level. As of Friday, the price of Australian Pb powder in the spot market was 981.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.36%; The price of primary metallurgical coke was 2910.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 21.08%; The price of main coking coal was 2352.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.09%. In the futures market, the active contract price of iron ore was 805.50 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 2.90%; The contract coke price was 3095.50 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.16%; The active price of coking coal was 2352.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.09%.
Steel supply and demand: supported by demand, the price of steel market fluctuated and rose
In terms of steel output this week, cold rolling, rebar, wire rod, medium and heavy sector and hot rolling increased by 3.27%, 4.44%, 4.50%, 3.83% and 4.03%. In terms of steel mill inventory this week, the inventory of cold rolling, hot rolling, medium and heavy sector, wire rod and rebar increased by 1.16%, 0.40%, 1.35%, 3.49% and 1.95% respectively. The demand side shock is stronger, and the overall situation is more optimistic. With the gradual resumption of production of the factory, the price of raw materials rose, which increased the buying of traders and the price of steel market rose. In the long run, the corresponding macroeconomic policies of the state will improve, and the overall steel price trend will continue to rise.
Investment advice
With the recovery of manufacturing demand superimposed on the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the profit logic of the steel industry has been reconstructed, and steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation. We are still optimistic about the steel sector for a long time. The national defense, military industry and aerospace industry have a broad domestic substitution space, and products such as superalloy, special stainless steel and ultra-high strength steel occupy an absolute dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the interim report and the special steel leader who can fulfill the high-profile of the industry: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; Traditional field leaders + popular emerging business targets are more favored by the market. It is suggested to focus on stainless steel rods and wires and mica lithium extraction leaders: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ; And the high growth leader in the field of cold rolled stainless steel: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) .
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; The economic downturn accelerated; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The demand for real estate steel fell sharply; Steel destocking process is blocked.
