This week’s view: this week, the financial Associated Press reported that new national regulations on the supervision and management of pre-sale funds of commercial housing will be issued, which will help regulate the use of pre-sale funds and avoid excessive local tightening and exacerbate the capital pressure of real estate enterprises; The central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a civilization to ensure that affordable rental housing loans are not included in the concentration of housing loans. While supporting the construction of affordable rental housing, they also increased their support for real estate loans to a certain extent; In addition, Guo Shuqing presided over a research symposium to study how financial asset management companies focus on the main business of non-performing asset disposal, which may help improve AMC’s enthusiasm to participate in real estate risk disposal and alleviate the pressure on the capital side of real estate enterprises. Benefiting from the continuous improvement of policies, the real estate sector rose 4.0% this week, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (0.8%). Considering that the short-term industry fundamentals are still under pressure and the policy game space is still, it is expected to drive the continuous repair of sector valuation; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of some real estate enterprises and M & A integration within real estate enterprises, the industry pattern is expected to be reshaped, and real estate enterprises with financing, control and product advantages are expected to stand out. In terms of development, pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages, and moderately pay attention to the second-line elastic targets Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Longguang group, etc. benefiting from the improvement of policies. In terms of diversified business, the valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low, the performance has increased steadily, and the cost performance continues to highlight. We are optimistic about the property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength, such as country garden service, poly property, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, and commercial operators with strong asset light output strength, such as Xingsheng commerce.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) Financial Association: new regulations on the supervision and management of national commercial housing pre-sale funds will be issued; 2) Central bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: indemnificatory rental housing loans are not included in the concentration of housing loans; 3) Guo Shuqing presided over a research symposium to study how financial asset management companies focus on their main business.
Market operation monitoring: 1) the turnover rebounded month on month, and the follow-up will still be under pressure. With the gradual recovery of online signature filing after the Spring Festival, 23000 new houses were sold this week (2.5-2.11), up 153% month on month; 7000 second-hand houses were sold, up 538% month on month. In January, the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 31.3% year-on-year, an increase of 13.0 PCT over the previous month. The subsequent weekly turnover is expected to gradually pick up from the low base of the holiday, but due to the cautious influence of supply and demand, the short-term turnover will still be under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand increased month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in December 2021, the number of units above 90 square meters increased by 2.2pct to 77.4% month on month. 3) Inventories fell slightly month on month, and were relatively stable in the short term. The inventory in 16 cities was 102.04 million square meters, down 0.3% month on month. The inventory may be relatively stable under the pressure of slowing down short-term supply and deregulation. 4) Land transactions fell and the premium rate rebounded, with only third-line transactions. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, 84000 square meters of land supply and 37000 square meters of land sold in Baicheng last week, down 99.9% and 99.9% month on month; The transaction premium rate was 31.3%, up 29.2pct month on month. Among them, only the third tier cities traded, and the proportion of transaction construction area increased by 27.2pct month on month.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: no domestic and foreign bonds will be issued this week. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 2.42 billion yuan this week, an increase of 2.42 billion yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector rose 4.0% this week, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (0.8%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 8.57 times, and the valuation is at the quantile of 23.56% in recent five years. This week, the top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north were China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) ; The top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from South are China overseas development, Jinke service and China Resources Land.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
