Key investment points:
Market review: from February 7 to February 11, 2002, CITIC consumer service industry index rose by 7.92% as a whole, ranking fourth among all CITIC primary industry indexes, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by about 7.09 percentage points in the same period. Among the segments of CITIC consumer service industry, in addition to the comprehensive service segment rising by 1.07%, the hotel catering, education, tourism and leisure sectors fell by 1.64%, 2.63% and 3.83% respectively, outperforming the CSI 300 index. Five listed companies in the industry achieved positive returns, with the top five increases being Zhejiang Meorient Commerce & Exhibition Inc(300795) , Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) , Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , up 13.58%, 10.69%, 4.21%, 2.22% and 0.51% respectively. There were 48 companies with negative returns, among which the top five listed companies were The Great Wall Of Culture Group Holding Co.Ltd.Guangdong(300089) , Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) , Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co.Ltd(002638) , Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) , Kaiyuan Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(300338) , down 5.12%, 5.13%, 6.54%, 9.11% and 14.23% respectively. As of February 11, 2022, the overall PE (TTM, overall method) of CITIC’s consumer service industry was about 43 times, slightly higher than that of last week, 46.74 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive services are 39.83 times, 57.85 times, 48.69 times and 60.40 times respectively.
Industry operation data: as of February 11, 2022, the covid-19 vaccination volume per 100 people in China has reached 210.27 doses, the cumulative covid-19 vaccination volume has reached 3.037 billion doses, and the average covid-19 vaccination volume in seven days is about 1228300 doses. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 131.33 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 53.84%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 27.511 million doses.
Important news: (1) the UK officially recognizes the Chinese vaccine, and those who are fully vaccinated can be exempted from quarantine entry.
(2) China and the UK agreed to conduct a two-week direct flight test from mid February.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. This week, the consumer service sector performed better than the market, and the industry valuation further rebounded. In terms of news, this week, the UK officially recognized the Chinese vaccine and agreed to carry out direct flight testing. It is expected to resume the China UK flights suspended since August 2021 and strengthen the recovery expectation of inbound and outbound tourism. Disney, Tui and other global tourism leading enterprises performed better than expected in the fourth quarter, and the global tourism industry recovered strongly, driving the strong rise of inbound and outbound tourism stocks. 2022 is expected to be the year of tourism recovery. It is suggested to pay careful attention to the outbound tourism leaders Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) (000796), Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) (002707) and tax-free leaders China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888) benefiting from the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism; Recommend chain hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258) with high proportion of franchise stores and stable performance; The recommendation is expected to benefit from the expected improvement of global tourism recovery, Emei Mountain (000888), the leader of natural scenic spots whose valuation is expected to respond in advance, and Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) (300144), the leader of artificial scenic spots with high performance flexibility.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Changes in industrial policies; Repeated outbreaks and other risks.
