The medical index weakened this week, weaker than the market
Pharmaceutical Biology (Shenwan) fell 2.73% this week, weaker than the market. The medical service sub industry fell 11.1% this week, with more callback; The biological products sub industry rose by 2.17%; The pharmaceutical business sub industry rose by 1.35%, the traditional Chinese medicine sub industry fell by 0.17%, the chemical pharmaceutical sub industry fell by 0.68%, and the medical device sub industry fell by 2.76%.
Summary of this week: CXO enterprises entering UVL list / innovative drugs going to sea is not smooth, and multi sector callback
On February 8, the U.S. Department of Commerce temporarily included two subsidiaries of YaoMing biology into the UVL list due to the obstruction of the on-site review due to the overseas epidemic. Affected by this, the share price of the pharmaceutical service sub industry (mainly CXO enterprises) fell. Cinda bio’s cindilimab is temporarily blocked from going to sea in the United States, and clinical data need to be supplemented. The adjustment range of H-share innovative pharmaceutical enterprises is large.
Outlook for next week: focus on the valuation and repair of pharmaceutical, medical services, covid-19 drug R & D company / CXO
On February 12, nmpa approved Pfizer’s covid-19 small molecule drug paxlovid conditionally. Pfizer has reached an agreement with MPP to authorize generic drug companies to supply 53% of the global population. Combined with its high sales forecast of $22 billion, paxlovid’s coverage has increased. During the Spring Festival, countries gradually liberalize the control of covid-19. For example, the United States no longer counts the number of infections, and the United Kingdom has lifted relevant public restrictions. Combined with policies and drug supply, the epidemic is expected to end in the near future.
Affected by the approval of covid-19 drugs by nmpa, the confidence in the end of the epidemic has increased, the offline promotion and clinical of the pharmaceutical industry have accelerated, and the medical service industry has warmed up. It is expected that the attention of the pharmaceutical (hospital scene drugs, excluding chronic disease drugs) and the medical service industry will be higher; The approval of the first covid-19 drug in China also shows that there is a strong demand for covid-19 drugs. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to leading enterprises in the research and development of covid-19 small molecules and even neutralizing antibodies; CXO companies oversold this week, but the short-term performance has no impact. We can pay attention to the valuation repair of CXO companies.
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) (300760): multi category, multi market and multi-level comprehensive device leader, benefiting from the construction of public health system, will continue to maintain a relatively stable growth and adjust to the bottom range of multi-year valuation. Corresponding to the closing price on February 11, the valuation of 2022-2023 is 34x and 27x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co.Ltd(600079) (600079): in the era of centralized mining, refined hemp drugs have the attribute of high barrier and good industrial competition pattern; The demand for narcotic drugs is driven by the growth of operation volume, comfortable diagnosis and treatment and other factors; The refocusing process continued, the debt ratio improved and the financial expenses decreased. Corresponding to the closing price on February 11, the valuation from 2022 to 2023 is 19x and 16x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Innovative drugs went to sea less than expected; Covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations; The national centralized purchase policy exceeded expectations.
