The tightening of supply and demand pattern, combined with the influence of geopolitical factors, has improved the outlook of crude oil and natural gas. The repair of the crude oil supply gap was slow, the situation in Russia and Ukraine tightened again, and the international oil price rose sharply. OPEC production increase data in January is far lower than the target value of production increase; Affected by the cold wave, the growth of crude oil production in the United States is limited; The tightening situation in Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated the market’s concerns about short-term crude oil supply. IEA released its monthly report in February. It is estimated that the global oil demand will increase by 3.2 million barrels / day to 100.6 million barrels / day in 2022. The impact of the epidemic on the economy and crude oil demand is still relatively limited, and the global crude oil demand is expected to recover further. In the medium and long term, under the background of “carbon neutrality”, the upstream capital expenditure is insufficient and the growth of crude oil supply is weak, which is expected to form a strong support for oil prices. The goal of carbon neutralization accelerates the transformation of energy structure and helps the growth of natural gas demand. The short-term natural gas supply side is affected by the risk of further intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the climate. There is uncertainty, and the natural gas landscape is expected to continue.
After the festival, the prosperity of the chemical industry is still improving, and pay attention to the follow-up trend of each segment. As of February 11, China’s chemical product price index (CCPI) was 5529 points, up about 2.4% compared with before the Spring Festival (January 28) and about 7.3% compared with the end of 2021. From this point of view, the chemical industry is still in the boom period. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, raw materials and downstream production enterprises began to return to work in an orderly manner, and China’s cargo transportation began to return to normal. We compared the resumption of work and production in the chemical industry before and after the Spring Festival with key industries such as chemical fiber, coal chemical industry, chemical fertilizer and new energy materials, as well as key varieties such as soda ash, pesticide, silicone, titanium dioxide and MDI, and made an appropriate outlook for the future. We are optimistic about the continuous improvement of prosperity brought by the improvement of downstream demand in the chemical fiber and chemical fertilizer industries. At the same time, we are also optimistic about the future development of enterprises with capacity scale advantages and first mover and cost advantages under the strong demand for new energy. In addition, we also suggest paying attention to the subsequent changes in the supply and demand pattern of representative bulk products such as soda ash, pesticides, silicone, titanium dioxide and MDI.
Weekly rise and fall of sectors: in the past five trading days, most of the sectors in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed an upward trend. This week, the Shanghai stock index rose by 3.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.78%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.82% and the gem index fell by 5.59%. CITIC basic chemical sector rose 0.8%, ranking 22nd in all sectors. In the past five trading days, most of the sub sectors of the chemical industry showed an upward trend. The top five sub sectors were civil explosives (+ 12.5%), nitrogen fertilizer (+ 10.8%), soda ash (+ 9.8%), viscose (+ 9.3%), phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical (+ 9.2%).
Rise and fall of individual stocks: in the past five trading days, the top gainers in the basic chemical sector are: Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) (+ 61.04%), Fanli Digital Technology Co.Ltd(600228) (+ 42.19%), Hunan Nanling Industry Explosive Material Co.Ltd(002096) (+ 28.68%), Tibet Gaozheng Explosive Co.Ltd(002827) (+ 27.75%), Jiangsu Chengxing Phosph-Chemical Co.Ltd(600078) (+ 27.72%).
Investment suggestions: (1) the upstream oil and gas sector is suggested to pay attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , CNOOC and Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) and other oil service targets. (2) White horse, the leader of undervalued chemical industry: it is suggested to pay attention to ① three chemical white horses: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ; ② Private refining and chemical fiber sector: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ; ③ Chemical cracking of light hydrocarbons: 221}; ④ Coal to olefin: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . (3) New materials: it is suggested to pay attention to ① semiconductor materials: Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) , Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) , Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300346) , Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Tianjin Jiuri New Materials Co.Ltd(688199) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) ; ② Wind power materials: carbon fiber, polyether amine, matrix resin, interlayer materials, structural adhesive and other related enterprises; ③ Lithium battery materials: electrolyte, lithium battery diaphragm, phosphorus chemical industry, fluorine chemical industry and other related enterprises; ④ Photovoltaic materials: upstream silicon materials, EVA, soda ash and other related enterprises; ⑤ OLED industry chain: Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Xi’An Manareco New Materials Co.Ltd(688550) , Jilin Oled Material Tech Co.Ltd(688378) , Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) . (4) Traditional cycle sector: it is suggested to pay attention to relevant targets in the fields of pesticides, coal chemical industry, urea, dyes, vitamins, chlor alkali, etc.
Risk analysis: the risk of rapid decline and high oil price; Downstream demand is less than expected risk.
