\u3000\u30001. New energy vehicle
In 2021, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 6.7 million
We believe that the global new energy vehicle market sales in 2021 exceeded expectations. According to evtank data, the global new energy vehicle sales in 2021 reached 6.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 102.40%. According to evtank’s prediction, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be close to 50% in 2030, and the global sales volume of new energy vehicles will maintain rapid growth in the next decade, which is expected to continue to drive the high demand for power batteries. According to sneresearch data, the global battery usage of electric vehicles in December 2021 was 43.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 53.20%, increasing for 18 consecutive months; In 2021, the total amount of electric vehicle batteries registered in various countries around the world was 296.8gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 102.18%. Among the world’s top ten enterprises in terms of installed capacity of power batteries, Chinese enterprises account for 6, of which Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , and honeycomb energy have achieved rapid growth. In the future, with the high demand for power batteries and the rapid expansion of production capacity of power battery manufacturers, the demand of the middle and upper reaches will continue to expand and the development of the industrial chain will continue to improve.
Core view:
We believe that with the continuous improvement of the sales structure and quality of new energy vehicles and the continuous introduction of high-quality new models, the supply will drive the change of demand, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate, and the sales volume is expected to achieve rapid growth. Optimistic:
1) leading high growth and high certainty opportunities, and the core supply chain of Tesla, Volkswagen MEB platform, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG chemistry, new forces, Hongguang miniev and other models with best-selling potential;
2) subdivide the leading track and have significant technology / cost moat advantage targets in the industry competition;
3) the demand for long endurance and fast charging is expanding, and the positive materials, lithium salt additives, conductive agents and other links driving technological innovation and product iteration;
4) the demand for high nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries brought about by the development of high-end + economic polarization, and the pattern of ternary cathode materials continues to be optimized under the trend of high nickel;
5) the increase of sales volume drives the increase of demand, and it is expected that the supply and demand of copper foil, diaphragm and other links are tight;
6) the accelerated layout of production capacity is expected to significantly benefit the relevant targets of the rapid growth of industry demand;
7) second tier targets that benefit from the growth of the industry and the continuous improvement of their own competitiveness and are expected to expand market share;
8) energy storage, two wheeled vehicles and other segments with structural opportunities; And continuously improve the charging and changing facilities.
Beneficiary objects: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co.Ltd(300953) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) etc.
\u3000\u30002. new energy
The green and low-carbon transformation of energy continued to advance
We believe that developing clean energy is one of the important ways to achieve “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization”. This opinion defines the time requirements for establishing an institutional framework for green and low-carbon development of energy, and puts forward “promoting the construction of an energy supply system dominated by clean and low-carbon energy”, It also advocates “accelerating the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases” and “giving priority to supporting the access of biomass power generation such as roof distributed photovoltaic power generation and biogas power generation to the power grid in rural areas”. The future development of clean energy dominated by photovoltaic and wind power is expected to accelerate.
Core view:
(1) photovoltaic
In the medium and long term, “carbon peaking”, “carbon neutralization” and the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% / 25% in 2025 / 2030. The goal is clear. Photovoltaic and other new energy will play an important role in energy transformation and carbon emission reduction in the future.
Pay attention to the supply-demand relationship under market changes and structural opportunities under technological changes, such as inverter, photovoltaic adhesive film, photovoltaic glass, vertically integrated manufacturers, distributed photovoltaic, consumables and equipment links, photovoltaic support, etc.
Beneficiary objects: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) etc.
(2) wind power
In the short term, the trend of large-scale fan is significant, and the overall cost is expected to decline; With the continuous promotion of large-scale scenery base projects and the acceleration of offshore wind power cost reduction, the wind power scenery is expected to be improved. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”. We continue to be optimistic about the installed demand and development space of the wind power industry.
Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the following links: 1) the wind power landscape continues to rise, and look forward to the opportunities of domestic components under the trend of large-scale and pattern changes, such as tower, spindle, casting, blade and other links; 2) Optimistic about the profit recovery link under the price adjustment of raw materials; 3) Optimistic about the domestic replacement of precision parts such as spindle bearings; 4) Optimistic about the opportunities under the changes of the whole machine link pattern and technology; 5) The cost of offshore wind power continues to drop, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. We are optimistic about marine products, submarine cables and other related links.
Beneficiary objects: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc.
(3) energy storage
In 2025, the target of energy storage installed capacity, market position and business model have been clarified, relevant national and local policies have been further improved, and energy storage will accelerate with renewable energy; With the application of new derived ecosystems such as superimposed distributed power stations, charging piles and microgrids, the energy storage on the generation side, grid side and user side will meet new application requirements. We are optimistic about the three main lines of lithium battery, inverter and energy storage system integration under the development opportunity of energy storage
Beneficiary objects: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , etc.
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicle industry does not meet expectations; The improvement of new energy installation and power rationing did not meet expectations; Product price risk drops significantly; The development of the epidemic exceeded the expected risk.
