This week's view:
Planting industry chain: according to the prediction of the early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the supply and demand gap of corn in China in 2021 / 22 is 15.15 million tons, down from the previous value of 21.5 million tons. The slight narrowing of the gap between supply and demand is expected to keep corn prices high and fluctuate in a narrow range. In recent years, the development of the seed industry has been significantly supported by policies. The proposal of the action plan for seed revitalization, the revision of the seed law and the improvement of the national rice / Corn Variety approval standards will greatly optimize the seed industry business environment and facilitate the continuous expansion of the market share of high-quality seed enterprises with strong R & D strength. In addition, the No. 1 central document will be released soon, or the seed industry will continue to emphasize that under the policy warm wind, the improvement of seed industry is expected to be relatively perfect. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with excellent performance of hybrid maize varieties.
The perennial root of sugarcane is three years in China, but five to seven years in Brazil and Australia. This is the reason why the overall supply of sugar was relatively sufficient in the past and the price of sugar did not rise for many years, but the cycle will only be late and will not be absent. 2021 has been five years away from the high point of the previous cycle. Superimposed on the higher than expected rise of oil prices and the large release of global currencies, as well as the frequent occurrence of global extreme climate caused by sunspot movement in recent years, a new upward cycle of sugar has begun. In terms of target selection, the steady target focuses on recommending China's sugar industry leader Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) , and the elastic target Nanning Sugar Industry Co.Ltd(000911) is expected to benefit fully.
In addition, we continue to recommend chemical stocks Meihua Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600873) with a valuation of only 11 times. We expect that next year's performance elasticity comes from the cost improvement brought by the new lysine production capacity put into operation at the end of the year and the downward price of corn. In the long run, the monosodium glutamate and amino acid industries are limited by the new capacity under the background of carbon neutralization, and the valuation center is expected to rise.
Pig breeding: according to the data of zhuyitong, the average price of pigs nationwide this week was 12.87 yuan / kg, down 6.64% on a weekly basis. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the number of fertile sows was 43.29 million, equivalent to 105.6% of the normal number. From the perspective of the number of fertile sows and the growth cycle of pigs in the second half of 2021, the loose supply pattern after the festival continued. In terms of demand, after the Spring Festival, the meat stored by families has not been digested, most schools and outdoor catering have not started before the Lantern Festival, and slaughtering enterprises focus on maintaining a high operating rate before the Spring Festival holiday. Affected by the decline of pig prices, some slaughtering enterprises have not started after the festival. At present, the consumption of pig meat market is weak, and we expect the pig price to remain weak and volatile in February, Promote the continuous deregulation of pig production capacity. In addition, on February 8, according to the monitoring of the national development and Reform Commission, the national average pig grain price ratio was 5.57:1 in the week from January 24 to 28, which was between 5:1 and 6:1 for three consecutive weeks, entering the secondary early warning range of excessive decline. The national development and Reform Commission will start the collection and storage of pork reserves with relevant departments as appropriate and guide local governments to carry out the collection and storage according to regulations, which may help boost pig prices at that time. From the current time node, the average market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has fallen to a historically low level, and the configuration window has been gradually opened. For the selection of specific targets, it is recommended in turn: Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) . In addition, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) are expected to benefit fully.
Risk tips
The recovery process of pig production capacity is less than expected, the product sales is less than expected, and the commercialization process of GM is less than expected.
