The semiconductor boom may continue in 2022, and large power plants actively invest in SiC
Recently, overseas leading power semiconductors released their performance report for the fourth quarter of 2021. It is predicted that the semiconductor industry will maintain a high outlook in 2022. There is a strong demand for power products in the fields of automotive electrification and renewable energy, and increasing capital expenditure in the field of silicon carbide has become a common plan for large power plants at home and abroad. According to Infineon's statistical data, from the perspective of market competition pattern, Infineon, ansenmey and Italy France semiconductor ranked the top three in 2020, accounting for 19.7%, 8.3% and 5.5% respectively. We have updated the strategic planning of the recent investor conferences on prosperity prediction, downstream drive and the third generation of compound products:
(1) Infineon: fiscal year 2022 Q1 (Infineon fiscal year 2021 lasts from October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021, and fiscal year 2022 Q1 corresponds to October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021) is the first quarter in which the company has not experienced supply interruption since the impact of epidemic and supply shortage. Infineon fiscal year 2022 Q1 revenue was € 3.159 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a month on month increase of 5%, Excluding the strong US dollar, the revenue increased by 3% month on month and 17% year-on-year. On the whole, the supply situation has improved, but it is still not enough to meet the demand. By the end of December, Infineon's total confirmed and unconfirmed orders were about 31 billion euros, with a quarter on quarter increase of 2 billion euros, that is, the company's nominal orders corresponded to the company's revenue for more than two years. The company predicted that the supply restriction of the OEM factory would continue, and the annual revenue in fiscal year 2022 was raised from 12.7 billion euros to 13 billion euros. In terms of downstream applications, electric vehicles are still on a strong development track, and the overall development of the automotive industry is towards high-end, which will further promote the rise of parts prices. The supply shortage may not be gradually improved until 2023. In addition, renewable energy, especially Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , will promote double-digit growth. In terms of the layout of the new generation SiC products, the company is in the leading position in the industry in terms of trench based sicmos. It is applied in the field of renewable energy and automobile, with strong orders, but more will be limited by supply.
(2) ansenmey: the company is positioned as a leader in the field of intelligent power supply and sensing. The company believes that the imbalance between supply and demand in the semiconductor industry may continue until 2022 and 2023. The semiconductor inventory in the whole supply chain is still very low. In the downstream application fields, the demand for electric vehicles, ADAS, energy infrastructure and factory automation has exacerbated the supply constraints. The acquisition of gtat has strengthened the company's leading position in the field of silicon carbide. At the same time, a large part of the company's capital expenditure is used for the actual 300mm capacity of East Fishkill plant and the expansion of silicon carbide capacity. By 2024, the company's target revenue of silicon carbide products will exceed US $2.6 billion, of which more than 70% will be driven by electric vehicles. By the end of 2022, the company's silicon carbide substrate production capacity increased by more than four times, and the annual revenue increased by more than twice year-on-year. In addition, the company focuses on power modules in the field of renewable energy. It is expected that the relevant revenue will increase by more than 50% year-on-year in 2022, gradually becoming one of the long-term driving forces of the company. The company will continue to implement Fab Lite strategy, reduce fixed costs when gradually withdrawing from small-scale wafer factories, increase the gross profit margin target to 45% ~ 50% in 2025, and gradually eliminate non core products with low profit margin.
(3) STMicroelectronics: at present, the backlog of orders related to automobiles of the company is about 18 months, which is much higher than the manufacturing capacity in 2022. STMicroelectronics, a silicon carbide product, has participated in 90 projects, including 72 customers. The revenue target of silicon carbide in 2024 is US $1 billion.
China's power semiconductor industry chain has become increasingly mature, and import substitution has gradually shifted from low-end to high-end
2020 is the first year for domestic IGBT to enter the field of vehicle regulations, breaking through the application of consumption, power supply and other fields with relatively low threshold. With the rise of China's Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry chain and the customer advantages of new forces, Chinese manufacturers accelerate product research and development to catch up with overseas leading manufacturers, based on stable supply advantages and cost performance advantages, Chinese vehicle regulation level IGBT suppliers have gradually penetrated from A00 entry-level models to A0 and A-level models. SiC module products have gradually entered the certification link of mainstream customers. The domestic substitution of power semiconductor sector in many fields has accelerated, and the market space is sufficient.
Investment suggestions:
We are firmly optimistic about the import substitution opportunities in many fields of the power semiconductor sector, focusing on recommending Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) , Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) related listed companies in the field of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic; Industry benefits: Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Tianyue advanced-u, Byd Company Limited(002594) semiconductor, Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) , Jiangsu Jiejie Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300623) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , etc.
Risk tips
The progress of vehicle specification products is lower than expected, and the verification of Chinese manufacturers is lower than expected.
