Liquidity: in January 2022, the growth difference between M1 and M2 fell to a new low level since 2015. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in January 2022 was 48.27, a month on month increase of + 2.41%. The high probability of periodic high point has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Composite Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 11.7 percentage points in January 2022 and – 6.20 percentage points month on month.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: the price and processing fee of nodular cast pipe are at a high level since 2011. (1) Price changes this week: thread + 4.44%, cement price index – 0.43%, rubber + 2.97%, coke – 12.50%, coking coal + 0.00%, iron ore + 4.47%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were -4.94pct, + 0.18pct, -2.30pct and + 6.60pct respectively; (3) This week, the price of nodular cast pipe was 7950 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.00%, and the processing fee was 3500 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 4.11%, still at the high level since 2011.
Real estate completion chain: the prices of flat glass and PVC rose month on month. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and + 10.09% month on month respectively this week; (2) This week, the profit of titanium dioxide was 2487 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 24.25%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 642 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of + 38.36%; (3) The price of PVC was 9353.00 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 4.41%.
Industrial chain: the operating rate of semi steel tire is at a low level in the same period of six years. (1) Price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by + 3.27%, + 2.83%, + 5.91% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by + 67.93%, + 3.99%, + 14.49%; (2) The operating rate of semi steel tire in China this week was 20.11%, with a month on month ratio of + 5.95 percentage points.
Breakdown varieties: electrolytic copper and electrolytic aluminum prices and profits rose month on month. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 24000 yuan / ton, the same as last week; (2) Nickel: the price this week was 176900 yuan / ton, up + 6.15% from last week; (3) Stainless steel: this week’s price is 19650 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.34%; (4) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 5150 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 6.19%, and the profit is – 461 yuan / ton; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22920 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 5.91%, and the estimated profit is 5117.3 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of + 14.49%; (6) The gross profit of alumina was 673 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 21.92%; (7) Thermal coal: the price this week is 1010 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.00%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread is narrowed to 220 yuan / ton. (1) The price ratio of screw thread to iron ore was 5.03 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar this Friday is 220 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 740 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month comparison of – 30 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.11, which is at a 10-year low. (5) The price difference between coil screw (mainly used in real estate) and rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) reached 190 yuan / ton on Friday, unchanged month on month.
Export chain: Global PMI new orders fell month on month in January. (1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 3587.91 points this week, a month on month increase of + 0.63%; (2) In January 2022, the new order value of global PMI was 52.20, with a chain comparison of -1.20 points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was + 0.82%, the cyclical sector ranked first in coal mining (+ 15.24%), and the quantile of Pb ratio of steel and industrial metals relative to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2015) was 35.25% and 62.65% respectively; The ratio of Pb in steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.70, and the highest value since 2012 is 0.92 (reached in February 2018).
Investment suggestion: at present, the overall performance of real estate infrastructure remains weak and the follow-up incremental space is limited, but we still need to pay attention to infrastructure structural opportunities. For example, the recent national water network, underground pipe network and municipal engineering construction policies are expected to drive the recovery of pipe demand. It is suggested to pay attention to: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) , Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Shandong Iron And Steel Company Ltd(600022) , Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited(601005) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
