I. review and theme of this week:
This week, Shenwan pharmaceutical index fell 2.73%, ranking 26th in the whole industry, losing the CSI 300 index and outperforming the gem index. In this week’s special topic, from the perspective of the outbreak of the epidemic in Hong Kong, Pfizer covid-19 drug approved in China and boten’s large order, we suggest that the medium-term dimension should pay more attention to independent and controllable Chinese covid-19 small molecules.
II. Recent resumption:
The overall medical index continued to decline this week. It was expected to rebound after the festival, but the trend in the first half of the week was relatively good. There was a relatively obvious rebound on Wednesday and entered the slump mode on Friday. Leading the rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday, the best performance is the undervalued medicine and traditional Chinese medicine. The rise of medicine is related to “Yaoming biological event” (listed in the UVL list of the U.S. Department of Commerce, which led to the sharp decline of CXO sector, followed by the chaotic negative cycle of chip structure) “, Undervalued traditional Chinese medicine is a representative vent formed by the comprehensive choice of the market to judge the bottom rebound of medicine at that time (relatively policy friendly and low valuation). However, the good times did not last long. On Friday, the FDA Xinda event (which affected the internationalization expectation of innovative drugs, although there had been pessimistic expectations before) and the health insurance centralized purchase briefing (systematic policy sentiment suppression) became the fuse for the medicine to continue to enter the systematic slump mode in the already fragile market environment. On the whole, this week, in addition to some stock logic, the comprehensive performance of pharmaceutical equipment with underestimated value and self-control is better. There were many big events over the weekend: boten announced that Pfizer added large orders, and the demand for covid-19 small molecules was very large, which continued to exceed expectations. The outbreak of the outbreak of Hongkong, Omicron prevention and control is very difficult, what measures will be adopted in Chinese mainland follow-up? Pfizer’s covid-19 small molecule emergency approval exceeded expectations (either the event itself or the time node). China has begun to urgently build the strategy combination of epidemic prevention system (vaccine + covid-19 small molecule + traditional Chinese medicine covid-19). Considering the changes of response strategies for possible epidemic development in the future, the R & D and approval of independently controllable Chinese covid-19 small molecule will also be accelerated, We should attach great importance to it. At present, there is no need to be pessimistic about the pharmaceutical index, but it is still dominated by the individual stock market. In the short term, we pay attention to the determination of performance and common sense valuation, and recognize the over falling target. The core reason for the decline of medicine is that after the bull market, the double highs digest “high valuation” and “high chip concentration”. In fact, after the decline in the first half of 2021 and the sharp decline in January 2022, the problem of “high valuation” has been greatly alleviated and “high chip concentration” is gradually alleviated. Concerns about sectors and segments have been fully discussed. At this time, valuation and performance are the best tools to combat emotional concerns. We suggest that we pay attention to performance determination in the short term and recognize the oversold target of common sense valuation.
III. sector view:
1. Thinking from the perspective of several years: the past 4-5 years have been a pharmaceutical bull market, and investment has paid more attention to “selecting the head company of the main track and enjoying valuation expansion”. The process of leaving the pharmaceutical bull market from the second half of 2021 to 2022 is to pay more attention to “individual stock cost performance under valuation digestion”. Facing the short-term weakness of medicine, we have stretched our vision. What is the essence of the long-term growth of the pharmaceutical industry? It is the long-term pull of the rigid demand of medicine and the long-term pull of the upgrading of health consumption, and the current demand satisfaction and penetration rate are very low. However, because we are worried about the reform policy of the payment end, we ignore this essence. The payment end policy will not be the long-term logical restriction of a rigid industry, which is at most a medium-term and short-term interference item. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic. GDP growth is in the downward stage, the economic structure continues to adjust, while China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry is in the early stage of growth, there is a reverse scissors gap, and the comparative advantage is strengthened. With the release of the population data of Qipu, China’s population structure is undergoing great changes. In the future, the development logic of many industries driven by the huge demographic dividend will face great changes. The market will pay more and more attention to and look for industries with comparative advantages of incremental attributes, The industry with long logical cycle and strong certainty ranks at the top of the list is medicine (the aging is intensifying, the expansion of just needed medicine, the upgrading of health consumption is intensifying, and the penetration rate of consumption medicine is increasing). It is optimistic for a long time. The long-term 4 + X strategic thinking remains unchanged: the upgrading of pharmaceutical science and technology, pharmaceutical consumption, pharmaceutical manufacturing and pharmaceutical mode.
2. Medium and short term: medicine has entered the medium and long-term layout range. The medium and short term is still bottom-up and pays more attention to the three factors of “performance valuation chips”. Up to now, the “double high problem” has been digested. Although there are many assets with unspeakable short-term valuation, extremely cheap and short-term concerns that are difficult to prove false, they have entered the allocation range in the medium and long term. In the short and medium term, in fact, there is no systematic solution. Recently, there have been problems in the chip structure of the whole market. Our idea is still to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with “fundamental common sense valuation oversold and discount”, in other words, they have fallen to the second-order derivative of the irrational valuation range. 2) The sub areas of “domestic demand policy immunity” and “foreign demand is relatively rigid” are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as adult class II vaccine, self-control, China covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, rehabilitation, etc. 3) Due to the high degree of chaos in stage trading, the chip factor should be fully considered when bottom reading.
3. Configuration idea:
Consumption upgrading: (1) vaccines: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) ; (2) Selected traditional Chinese medicines: Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Zhejiang Conba Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600572) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) ; (3) Rehabilitation: Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) etc; (4) Ophthalmology: Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) .
Manufacturing Upgrading: (1) upstream of biomedicine ( Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) ); (2) Differentiated cdmo ( Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) ); (3) API systematic upgrade ( Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) ); (4) Injection outlet ( Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) ).
Innovation and upgrading: (1) covid-19 small molecule & innovation internationalization ( Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ); (2) CGT ( Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Northland, Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) ); (3) Nuclear drug ( Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) ).
Other long-term tracking and promising targets include: { Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) {{ Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) { Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) {{ Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) { Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) { Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) { Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) {{ Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) { Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) {{{300603127} {{{ Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) {{{{603127 {{{{{{} {{{{{{{{{{{{ Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) } {{{{{{{ Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) }} {{{ Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) }, {{{{{000000000403}}}}} {}, Hunan Nucien Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688189) Allgens Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688613) , Nanjing Vishee Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688580) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Amoy Diagnostics Co.Ltd(300685) , Intco Medical Technology Co.Ltd(300677) , Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) , Autobio Diagnostics Co.Ltd(603658) , Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) , Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002294) , Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) , China biopharmaceutical, Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600998) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.Ltd(600380) , Guangzhou Jet Bio-Filtration Co.Ltd(688026) , Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) negative policies continue to exceed expectations; 2) The growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; 3) There may be errors in assumptions or calculations.
