Focus:
1) on February 10, the central bank released the financial and social finance data of January: in January, the total amount of credit supported by the improvement of enterprise financing increased more, the social finance increased more across the board, and the growth rate continued to rise by 0.2pct.
2) on February 11, the CBRC announced the 21q4 regulatory index of commercial banks: Q4 interest margin rebounded month on month, asset quality continued to improve, but regional banks differentiated. 3) On February 11, the central bank released the fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report.
Industry and company dynamics
1) on February 8, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on excluding the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing from the concentration management of real estate loans, which made it clear that the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing projects are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans. 2) On February 8, the central bank and other departments issued the 14th five year plan for the development of financial standardization. 3) On February 11, the central bank formulated the measures for the management of bond lending business in the inter-bank bond market, which requires to improve the bond lending system and improve the efficiency and flexibility of bond lending transactions. 4) This week’s Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) public offering of convertible bonds of no more than 6 billion yuan was approved by the CBRC; Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) Shenzhen Shantou Special Cooperation Zone Branch obtained the opening approval of Shenzhen banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau; Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) the foreign shareholder Intesa Sanpaolo Bank of Italy increased its holding of 394 million H shares, with an increase ratio of 3.65% and 17.5% after the increase.
Data tracking
This week, the A-share bank index rose 6.11%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.28 percentage points, ranking 10 / 30 in terms of rise and fall, among which Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (+ 10.11%), Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) (+ 8.29%) and Xiamen Bank Co.Ltd(601187) (+ 8.21%) were the top gainers.
Open market operation: this week, the central bank conducted a total of 100 billion yuan of reverse repo in the open market, and a total of 900 billion yuan of reverse repo expired, so a net return of 800 billion yuan this week; Next week, 300 billion yuan of reverse repo and 200 billion yuan of MLF will expire in the open market.
Shibor: Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank lending rate trend down, the overnight Shibor interest rate down 35bp to 1.81%, and the seven-day Shibor interest rate down 25bp to 2.02%.
Investment suggestions:
This week, the central bank disclosed the data of credit and social finance in January. The total amount exceeded expectations, the structure was concentrated in the enterprise sector, and the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased year-on-year, and the wide currency was promoted to wide credit; In addition, the Q4 goods policy report puts forward the requirement of “stable total amount + excellent structure” for follow-up credit, reflecting that the short-term policy environment is still relatively positive. At the industry level, the regulatory data of the CBRC in the fourth quarter was released, and the trend was consistent with the disclosed performance express data, which further strengthened the expectation of the certainty of the performance of the banking sector, but the risks were differentiated among different banks. In the follow-up, the overall sector still has policy support, and it is expected that the performance cashing in the performance period of the annual report in March and April will continue to support the valuation repair of the sector. We maintain the “recommended” rating of the sector and continue to recommend at the individual stock level: China Merchants, Ping An, Societe Generale, Ningbo, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) etc.
Risk tips:
1) the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, and the credit cost has increased significantly;
2) business differentiation of small and medium-sized banks, major business risks of individual banks, etc
