In January, the land transaction and construction surface of Baicheng was – 22% year-on-year in a single month, and the average transaction price was – 51%. The willingness of mainstream real estate enterprises to acquire land decreased
In January 2022, the transaction and construction area of Baicheng land was 94.85 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 21.6% (compared with – 24.0% in December 21); The total transaction price was 112.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 61.8% in a single month; The average transaction price was 1186 yuan / m2, with a single month year-on-year increase of – 51.3% (compared with December 21 + 10.9%). In January 2022, 1711 lands were sold and 1413 lands were not sold in Baicheng; The proportion of uncompleted land in the number of land transactions in a single month was 83% (130% in December of 21). According to Kerui’s statistics, in January 2022, the new land value (land acquisition amount) of 50 real estate enterprises totaled 69.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.8% in a single month; The total new land construction area of 50 real estate enterprises was 16.55 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 50.4% in a single month.
According to the urban energy level, there was no transaction of first tier residential land in January, and the third and fourth tier land market also became colder
1) according to the urban energy level, in January 2022, the transaction and construction areas of the first, second and third and fourth lines of land in 100 cities were 3.42 million square meters, 25.88 million square meters and 65.54 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 71.1%, – 35.8% and – 4.8% respectively. The total transaction price was 8.5 billion yuan, 36.8 billion yuan and 67.1 billion yuan respectively, with – 85.7%, – 71.3% and – 37.1% year-on-year in a single month. The average transaction price was 2496 yuan / m2, 1424 yuan / m2 and 1023 yuan / m2 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 50.3%, – 55.3% and – 33.9% respectively.
2) according to the urban energy level, in January 2022, the residential transaction construction area of the first, second and third and fourth lines of the land in 100 cities was 10000 square meters, 4.62 million square meters and 18.61 million square meters respectively, with a single month on year ratio of – 100.0%, – 72.8%, – 24.0% (December 21 – 10.1%, – 31.7%, – 32.3%) respectively. Affected by the adjustment of the rhythm of centralized land supply and the wait-and-see mood of the market before the festival, In January, there was no residential land transaction in the first tier cities, and the third and fourth tier land market also became colder. The total transaction price was RMB 0 billion, RMB 26.8 billion and RMB 47 billion respectively, with a single month year-on-year ratio of – 100.0%, – 73.4% and – 42.9% respectively. The average transaction price was 0 yuan / m2, 5797 yuan / m2 and 2525 yuan / m2 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 100.0%, – 2.2% and – 24.9% respectively. The premium rates of first tier, second tier and third and fourth tier transactions were 0.0%, 5.1% and 3.1% respectively (1.8%, 2.8% and 2.6% in December 21)
Investment suggestion: on September 24, 2021, the central bank set the tone of “two maintenance”, and dispelled doubts on October 15“ α “Risk” exposure and“ β Coefficient “healthy and stable; On December 20, the central bank clearly supported high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of large-scale real estate enterprises in danger and difficulties, and the real estate enterprises such as Evergrande“ α The “risk” repair enters the implementation stage. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the liquidity of the real estate industry has continued to repair, and development loans and mortgage loans have continued to pick up; The central bank fully released the “long-term interest rate” of RMB 1.5 trillion for private enterprises, making it more stable for private enterprises; The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market, and the central economic work conference reiterated that “real estate is not fried” and then proposed “policies for the city”; National opinions on the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing have been issued, and structural correction has promoted steady growth; We believe that the restrictions on house purchase in some regions will be gradually withdrawn, accelerate the citizenization of agricultural transfer population, and support residents’ reasonable house purchase demand.
At the beginning of 2022, the real estate sector ushered in a “good start”, with excellent performance of high-quality leading real estate enterprises; As of the closing on February 11, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) rose 10.77%, Vanke enterprises rose 19.98%, China overseas development rose 34.62%, and China Jinmao rose 32.22%; We believe that with the interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2022, the credit supply of residents’ improved housing mortgage loans is expected to be further supported, and the attention and confidence of the capital market in high-quality leading real estate enterprises will be further improved. Highlight China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) / Vanke enterprise, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Jinmao, China overseas development, China Resources Land, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Longhu group and Yuexiu real estate.
Risk analysis: covid-19 epidemic, economic restructuring and Sino US trade friction may lead to the development and employment of some industries in China falling short of expectations, which will affect residents’ income and credit expansion; The “three red lines” of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and the risk of credit default of some real estate enterprises increases.
