Investment summary:
Market situation: this week (2.5-2.11), the A-share real estate index (Shenwan real estate) increased by 4.00% (last week - 4.20%), and the A-share market (wandequan a) increased by 1.24% (last week - 5.01%); The H-share real estate index (kroney real estate leading index) rose 4.35% (3.82% last week), and the H-share market (Hang Seng Index) rose 1.36% (4.34% last week). This week, the performance of A-share and H-share real estate sectors were stronger than the market.
Industry fundamentals:
Sales during the Spring Festival holiday were cold, and the data of new house sales and second-hand house transactions fell sharply at the same time. From the data, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 45 cities (2.1 ~ 2.7) was - 92.9% year-on-year and - 27.1% year-on-year last month; The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities (2.1 ~ 2.10) was - 81.6% year-on-year and - 30.1% year-on-year last month. Due to the severe decline in sales data, the inventory of new houses and the decontamination cycle have increased. From the data, the cycle of commercial housing in 15 cities (as of 2.10) was 552 days, compared with 492 days in the same period last month.
In the case of sluggish sales of developers and tight capital, the supply and demand of the land market are weak, and the land transaction continues to decline. According to the data, the cumulative land construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (as of 2.6) was - 60.0% year-on-year, and - 52.3% year-on-year last week; The premium rate of land transaction in 100 large and medium-sized cities (1.31 ~ 2.6) this week was 31.3%, and 2.0% last week; The total land transaction price of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (up to 2.6) was - 75.4% year-on-year, and - 68.2% year-on-year last week.
Due to the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday, real estate enterprises have hardly carried out any domestic debt, foreign debt and trust financing recently. From the data, the issuance scale of domestic real estate bonds (2.1 ~ 2.11) has accumulated - 100.0% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 57.5% year-on-year; The issuance scale of overseas real estate bonds (2.1 ~ 2.11) accumulated - 100.0% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 86.7% year-on-year; The scale of trust financing (2.1 ~ 2.11) accumulated - 86.3% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 84.7% year-on-year.
Investment strategy: during the Spring Festival holiday, the transactions in the real estate market are still cold, and the transaction scale of sales and land market continues to decline. The investment willingness of real estate enterprises is essentially determined by sales expectations. After the festival, the central bank and some cities have increased financial support for affordable housing, and a series of market stability maintenance policies such as the introduction of national pre-sale fund supervision opinions are being implemented one after another. We believe that the focus of the policy is shifting from the risk of real estate enterprises' capital to the risk of vicious circle caused by the stall and decline on the demand side. The follow-up demand side care policy is expected to accelerate the landing and stabilize the expectations of buyers. The direction may be to meet the reasonable needs of buyers by adjusting the purchase restrictions. The purchase restriction policy in some regions may be adjusted to release part of the purchase demand and reverse the decline in both volume and price at the sales end.
We believe that the care policy of the financing section will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share. Recommend Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . The support of the financing side will gradually overflow to the stable private enterprises after meeting the requirements of the stable central enterprises and real estate enterprises in the head. The market will gradually restore confidence in the stable private enterprises. It is suggested to continue to track the leaders of the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
Risk warning: the risk of further tightening industrial policies, the risk of continued decline in profitability, and the risk of sales falling short of expectations
